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greenoak
01-29-2009, 12:02 PM
how bad is it going to be?
we are facing a horrid january....its hard to judge...we lost one week to sub zero temps...and have had lots of heavy snow days which would naturally stop lots of travelling, which our store depends on......

i hope these are the reasons store traffic is so down and not that our customers are not shopping ,or becasue of the hard facts that here in our state many parts are in double digit unemployment and most of us know people who are really affected by whats happening out there in the economy....
i just dont know whats really happening...time will tell...
for now im not laying anyone off, but rather working up inventory, adding value, into things that will sell later....
we have always survived hardtimes before..... somehow!!!! this just feels different...
ann

vangogh
01-29-2009, 01:27 PM
Hard to know why people aren't shopping, though I would think you're store is more of a luxury for most people rather than a necessity. I can see where you might be one of the businesses that could hurt a little more from the poor economy.

If the weather is really bad that could be what's keeping people away, and hopefully that's the case since it should only be temporary.

From most everything I've seen no one really expects 2009 to be a good year, but I think many believe the worst is either behind us or happening right now. I'm certainly not an economic expert, but based on what I've been reading the impression I get is it will be a down year with a turnaround coming in the next few months, but even then it will probably be a small growth at best. Again can't say any of that is accurate. Just the sense I'm getting, though it could also be a little wishful thinking too.

Steve B
01-29-2009, 01:52 PM
I'll give you one perspective that might help you look into the crystal ball a little.

A friend of mine does the same thing that I do in North Carolina. Because of his location, most of his clients tend to be retirees. My clients tend to be couples in their 30's with two jobs in the family, young kids (and a new family dog that won't stay in the yard). I'm having my best January ever and his phone has hardly rung since early November. We have surmised that his clients have seen their savings dip with little hope of regaining what they lost since they are no longer working. My market is no less affected by the downturn, but if they still have a job they may be taking things more in stride since they will be working for another 20+ years to make up for the losses.

So, Ann it may depend on who your typical client is. At least, based on this one little anectdote.

Of course, since we had a hard freeze a couple weeks ago - having a great January is a moot point since I can't install any of the fences until the ground thaws. Oh well.

thx4yrtym
01-29-2009, 02:42 PM
Approximately 150,000,000 people got up and went to work today and will do so tomorrow as well. Nobody talks about that! These consumers fall into basically three categories.
1. have no money to spend
2. have money to spend but so far in debt they probably shouldn't spend
3. have money and have little debt

Group three right now according to an article I saw the other day are not spending. It's considered chic to not spend, like they cut back out of sympathy for those that can't afford to spend. Not real bright!

This economic crisis will end. Will things be like they were when it ends, almost certainly not. Attitudes and priorities will change for many and thus buying habits will change as well. Sometimes change is a good thing.

Regards,

Gregg

Business Attorney
01-29-2009, 03:42 PM
Gregg, I would just add that I personally know people in your third group who are not spending, but not primarily because of it being "chic" or out of sympathy with the first or second group. They are not spending out of fear (or caution) because they don't know whether they will find themselves in group one or two in the very near future.

KristineS
01-29-2009, 03:50 PM
I think everyone is being a little extra cautious right now. Any purchases that aren't outright necessities are being pondered a little longer. I don't think it will stay that way forever, but I think it will take quite a while, if ever, for people to go back to their freespending ways.

greenoak
01-29-2009, 04:18 PM
our main local customers a re young famlilies who own houses...we sell lots \of tvv tables and computer desks and bookcases....everything you need for a house...the antique thing isnt major...im planning to push the idea of saving money with style....and getting something made out of real wood instead of particle board.....
that list of 3 fom gregg above is downright scary and how i see it too...i just want to be on the side that deserves their money...
im going for more things that are made here too....
ann

huggytree
01-29-2009, 07:08 PM
i would think twice about stocking up on product....id keep your available materials at a minimum....you may need that money....id cut the workers to 30 hours or lay some off....i used to stock up and now i keep it to a minimum...why have $10,000 worth of materials just sitting in my garage when $5,000 will work.

this could last 6 months or 10 years...no one knows....prepare & protect yourself

This Jan. was better than 08's Jan.....Feb is hard to say right now...looks like it will be the same as 08....

im getting supply houses cut multiplier rates on fixtures without me even asking....they are desperate.....bad thing about that is when things get back to normal they cant bring is back up.

in WI i think the unemployment is 7%ish...we are doing better than alot of states...i find people are working 30 hour work weeks instead of being laid off.

when you think that 1/2 the wealth in the stockmarket is gone...its amazing anyone is spending....when you think that home values are down 20% its amazing anyone is doing home improvements.

I recommend finding different ways to make money which are more recession proof..

for me ive gotten in good with a fire/water restro. company...recession proof...flood or fire and it will be redone.......also gotten in with some insurance agents....once again burst pipes/flood....it has to be done....

i havent noticed my customers being of a certain age....none are under 35 it seems...i probably have more age 50+ customers lately than young...i always figure its because they have been screwed over too many times that now they pay more for their contractors...

seolman
01-29-2009, 08:04 PM
As in most recessions people are looking for a "sign" of some sort that will make them loosen up the wallet or be willing to use the credit cards again. It really all depends on what that sign is...everyone is different. But I know if I saw my IRA drop 30% or more in value it would take a long time before I felt good about spending. How long ago was the DOW at 8300?

pete
01-29-2009, 08:51 PM
I feel better daily about that lady buying out my "real business" a couple of years ago. Best thing that ever happened. Now she is worrying about why people aren't buying and I'm having a great month and look forward to an even better year.

The value of my assets is pretty much out of my control, as with most of us.

But the day-to-day online business has never been better. I've been doing a couple of things from the room over my garage. So, no overhead, just the power for a PC and printer and broadband that I'd have, regardless.

I have a partner in China, an American who is living there, and we wholesale and dropship unbranded personal electronics around the world. I handle the website and take the orders. He sources the products and handles the shipping. Works well and is growing monthly. Being closed for a couple of weeks for Chinese New Year doesn't help. but even so, things are good.

I do web hosting. I don't try and compete with the big boys, 75% of my accounts are 200MB, yes 200 MB. They are mostly shopping cart sites and most carts take about 100MB or so, no more than 125MB. So, a lot of small cpanel accounts that add up. 3 new ones today. From the US, even. :)

And, for pizza and beer money I've just been asked by a forum owner to write 4 or 5 articles a week for him. I would not retire on that income, but it's a nice little piece of change for doing what I do anyhow: sit and write.

The local economy doesn't affect me, other than the price of gas and utilities, etc. And I'm finding there are a lot of folks around the world still doing business. I'm not selling container loads, have no intention of doing so, but a gross of MP4 players to Spain is a nice little sale. And I'm sitting at home doing it.

Marcomguy
01-30-2009, 07:17 PM
Several business owners and CEOs are saying that the economy is heading toward essentially a reset and reboot. There is too much supply chasing too little demand.

While it's true that sales are sinking and people are losing jobs, there is also a large emotional factor at play. The headlines make citizens more nervous than they might otherwise be. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" is relevant today, too.

As pointed out earlier, 150 million people still have jobs. They're out there buying. Amazon just reported a 9% rise in profits in 4Q. And I have never seen the local Costco's parking lot as full as it was last Saturday.

greenoak
01-30-2009, 10:09 PM
great planning pete...im in the opposite situation.... but also pretty satisfied .......heavy overhead,all our homes and insurance depending on the store, no other income,..we couldnt lay low if we had to.....
our inventory is the big draw here, and im buying fairly heavy....to make it we have to sell a whole lot....i want to keep my inventory big and fat and interesting...as usual..thats what they expect from us...
i am trying to diversify....and have 2 or 3 ideas on that...
but mainly i dont want to look shrivelled up and runnng scared.... also tryng hard not to lay anyone off.....
ann

vangogh
01-30-2009, 10:53 PM
A little bit of bad news to add to the bad news. The stock market is down for the month of January. In fact it's the worst January in history I believe. How the market performs in January has usually been a good indicator for how the economy will be over the rest of the year.

GDP shrunk 3.8 percent in the 4th quarter of last year, which was better than expected, but many are now saying they think GDP will shrink more the 1st quarter of 2009 than the last of 2008.

CraigFLA
01-31-2009, 12:06 PM
I see things getting a lot worse. People are afraid to spend unless they have to. We haven't really felt the full effect of the recent stock market crash yet. It hasn't filtered down to the bottom yet. The only one thing that is big enough to stimulate the economy alone is the government-- not the best idea but all we may left. As we can see by HR1, the effort is not in the right direction-- not enough immediate cash influx and immediate job creation. If this bill doesn't change before it's passed, there will be worse news. Sorry for the doom & gloom but we may need to hunker down for the long term...

vangogh
01-31-2009, 12:21 PM
Don't feel bad about the doom and gloom. It wasn't you're doing. You're also living in the area that seems to be hardest hit by everything going on.

What's frustrating is all the mixed news I see. There are many negative signs about where the economy is going, yet at the same time some positive signs in the mix. It is looking like another down year, but hopefully we'll start to see a recovery before year's end.

One thing to keep in mind is the economy at large doesn't have to affect your business so negatively. Many businesses do succeed during bad economic times. Google rose to prominence during the time after 9/11, which was the last really bad economy we had.

seolman
01-31-2009, 12:38 PM
I agree with Steve on this. Keep your eyes open for positive signs in the economy and steer that direction. Smart entrepreneurs will find where the currents are strongest and ride them toward where the new economy will grow out of this.

Aaron Hats
01-31-2009, 02:45 PM
Being in New Hampshire I think we're fairing better than a lot of other states. Our December unemployment was at 4.6%. Just this week, I heard from two regular customers who had been laid off. Depending on how the rest of today goes, our in-store business will be even or slightly less than last January while our online business continues to soar to a 20-25% increase over last January. I'm still playing it cautiously though with inventory.

Aaron

Harold Mansfield
01-31-2009, 02:56 PM
Everybody is not unemployed, it's just that everybody is not employed. I am actually doing better this month than in December, mainly on my Ebay sites. My retail products and sites are barely doing anything, which say's to me that people haven't stopped living, they are just looking for ways to save money on the things that they still want.

I noticed that some of the bigger ticket items like used Video Game Systems, Professional Audio Equipment, and Used Harley Davidson's still have multiple bids on them daily, so there is still money out there.

I have changed my article marketing from "Get a new shiny..." to "Save Money by buying used..."
People still have jobs and money to spend, but now instead of them looking for us, we have to go looking for them.

vangogh
01-31-2009, 04:58 PM
"Get a new shiny..." to "Save Money by buying used..."

That's really it right there. You can still do well in your business as long as you understand how things are changing for people. So you tweak your pitch and your product or services. The economy may not be the best, but plenty of money is still going to change hands this year. And maybe you'll have to work a little harder for it to pass through your hands than you had a couple years ago.

greenoak
01-31-2009, 05:33 PM
i think/hope that idea,save money by buying used, would naturally help my business.....
we are so close to lots of our customers ....and they ask and ask how we are doing....out of concern....its getting to be a topic...they all seem to know horror stories about other businesses....
we had a pretty good day today....

Aaron Hats
01-31-2009, 05:43 PM
we are so close to lots of our customers ....and they ask and ask how we are doing....out of concern....its getting to be a topic...

What do you tell them? Lots of customers ask us the same thing and the answer is always the same...GREAT! Even in the middle of all the problems we had last year the answer was always the same. If you have customers who are "real" friends you can share your problems with them. Personally, I think you should only ever show your best face to the customer.

pete
02-01-2009, 09:30 AM
ann, you're doing exactly what I would do in your position, and have done in previous downturns, keeping up a good front, keeping goods in the building and keeping a smile on your face.

Take advantage of distress goods that can be bought cheaply, and possibly fill in with at least some of the popular items that are no longer available locally because other businesses have closed.

There are always some who come through these times in better condition than when they went in. With the right attitude and a good customer base to recommend you to others, you can do the same.

Dan Furman
02-02-2009, 01:38 AM
Not meaning to add to the gloom, but I'm not all that optimistic. Not in regards to myself, mind you - I'm very positive in that respect (I feel I'm flexible and have skill - I'll always find a way to earn money.)

But this, to me, is "more" than a simple downturn. We've had a negative savings rate in this country for some time now. It's not just big business that's a problem - it's basically anyone who puts dinner out on a CC and then carries a balance. Everyone wants a $10 lifestyle on $8 worth of salary (and $6 worth of skills.) That simply doesn't work.

I've said this before, but I think the times from before WW2 are more reflective of how things "should" be. Some rich, some well off, and a huge portion fairly poor. I mean, the only way we got out of the Great Depression was WW2. Think about that - more than ten years of trying different things, and the economy never really got better. Then bam, WW2 comes and goes, we become (essentially) the only country with standing factories, unions grow strong, everyone has a good job, and home ownership becomes a reality for many that couldn't dream of such before. And our expectations have only gotten bigger.

And maybe things are really not supposed to be that way. Maybe not everyone is supposed to be able to afford a house, two cars, vacations, college for the kids, and a plasma TV.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see no real way out except a major step back in quality of life (in economic terms.) Or WW3, of course (hope not!)


edit: maybe a "step back" would mean we all wear hats again, like depression-era people did. I know one biz that should do pretty well then :)

greenoak
02-02-2009, 05:57 AM
i hear you dan...but back then you could get a broken arm fixed without mortgaging the farm.... its so messed up....
aaron, i might not say great...but i definitely try and be positive and at least say we are hanging in there....
also am trying to do what pete suggests....buying a bit different and keeping it looking good...
so many places are going to fold tho, i got a catalog yeaterday from a company i used to buy from, offering 50 to 70% off almost everything..and threw it away..im being a lot pickier.....
ann

Steve B
02-02-2009, 08:38 AM
Dan - I agree with a lot of what you say (not all - I'll let you guess on that).

It's a bitter pill to swallow right now, but a lot of people and businesses are reaping what they sowed (buying houses they couldn't really afford, not having any savings for a rainy day, making loans to people that couldn't afford it, signing papers they didn't understand etc.). If we could fast forward through all the pain - I think the best thing would be to let things occur naturally and shake themselves out. However, we as a society will never be able to let those things happen without intervening (i.e. Bailout), so we will alleviate some things and cause new problems (debt for our grandchildren).

After it's all over, I do hope there is a fundamental difference in the expectations of many people about what they need versus what they want.

Dan Furman
02-02-2009, 11:10 AM
Dan - I agree with a lot of what you say (not all - I'll let you guess on that).

It's a bitter pill to swallow right now, but a lot of people and businesses are reaping what they sowed (buying houses they couldn't really afford, not having any savings for a rainy day, making loans to people that couldn't afford it, signing papers they didn't understand etc.). If we could fast forward through all the pain - I think the best thing would be to let things occur naturally and shake themselves out. However, we as a society will never be able to let those things happen without intervening (i.e. Bailout), so we will alleviate some things and cause new problems (debt for our grandchildren).

After it's all over, I do hope there is a fundamental difference in the expectations of many people about what they need versus what they want.

You disagree with the "Dan has skill" part :D

Actually, the part at the end is one reason I don't think it gets better anytime soon. If people act responsibly (see the difference between need and want), they will spend less, which isn't good for the economy. That's why I do not think any kind of bailout will work - the whole premise of "borrow borrow borrow" is flawed. There's only so long you can live like that. We, as a country, have become used to "life on credit" (even if you personally don't use it, the job that pays you probably does, and the consumers who purchase your employer's products likely do as well.)

Going to be an interesting few years. I just had a friend who showed up for work Thursday (he's a mechanic at a large dealership). Doors locked, sign on the door said "sorry, we're closing". Scary stuff.

huggytree
02-05-2009, 10:01 PM
i gave all my company profits to edward jones last week....i threw 25% into the market (it was at 7,999) and 75% into money market....i told her when it goes to 6,999 ill go 25% more, 5,999 25% more & 4,999 the last 25%....she thinks im crazy and says its impossible because how can companies be worth that little....i said maybe it was 2x overpriced...maybe 3x......im not even thinking about my existing long term ira money..

i put my annual SEP IRA money in 5 months ago...$12,000...now $6,500....would have been a nice vacation.......from now on im putting it in $3k quarterly instead of lump sum..

ive even considered buying a classic car with the $ i just put in...atleast its something i will actually have....and muscle car prices are down 10-20%

today was my last day of work!
i have no new jobs signed
my to do pile is empty!
my phone rings 2-3x a week

i have been bidding some atleast lately and im sure within 4 weeks ill be back up and running...but im expecting 40 hours of work this month...its time to relax and wait for spring.

this may be the first month i lose money in a year...maybe thats something to brag about the more i think about it!

tuitionsource
02-12-2009, 11:35 PM
I don't think things will get better until the real value of all the CDO's and mortgages is marked down. There is a lot of distrust right now and a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines until the truth starts coming out.

I am doing fine. I am concerned about my tenants though.

Also, you can't borrow your way out of debt. IMHO, the stimulus just delays the pain.

Good luck to you all.

greenoak
02-14-2009, 09:25 AM
that indiana town obama visited was real close to me.....
ann

huggytree
02-14-2009, 10:10 AM
compared my companies gross income to last years at this point..im up 22%

im hardly working right now. just sold 1 great 1 day project yesterday...enough to turn this month into breakeven/alittle profit territory. still planning on 40 hours for the whole month.

i am bidding alot lately though. ive bid on 3 new houses in the past 3 weeks (havent bid on 1 for 5 months before that)

also bidding on 3-4 mid size jobs per week....

all my bids are falling through...even referrals.....guys out there bidding below cost and i havent lowered my prices.

down to just 2 non(late) payers....small claims court threat starts next week!

Home Depot was completely empty yesterday
I dont even see construction vehicles on the road anymore.
Builder association says new home starts down to 1/5th of the peak of a few years ago (its like 40 houses in the state of WI for the month of Jan)

my accountant says he is getting the most early submissions ever...he's burried like he normally is in April...every wants their tax refunds asap