What's the next 100

[Watchdog]

What's the next 100 million dollar idea -any projections or anyone with an idea that seems so ready to be big...

e.g. twitter, myspace, youtube (myshoppass :D ) you know what I mean...What do you think it will be and is it going to be as easy as the many we have already seen?

[KristineS]

Boy I wish I knew.

I saw a social networking site for dogs today. You have to wonder about things like that. First that someone thought of it and then that other people bought into it.

The next big idea could be something goofy like that.

[Watchdog]

Yeah, it's amazing the stuff I see. I ran into a site on bats :) they had over 100,000 registered users?

Hello! maybe we're thinking about this all wrong:)

[vangogh]

The next big thing will look obvious in hindsight, but until it arrives we won't know what it is. If you're looking toward the internet for that next big idea I'd suggest it will have to do with cell phones or other mobile devices. If you're looking in general I'd suggest it will come from alternative energy sources.

Still the idea could come from anywhere and be about most anything. It likely will look simple after the fact and again seem obvious. We'll all think how simple a concept it is and wonder why we didn't think of it first.

[mr.ro]

Nothing everything invented that is good has already been invented. Just kidding

The internet will most likely be the next medium to house the 100 million dollar idea. I too agree that it will deal with the mobile part of the internet or online applications.

Offline will have to be energy since that is what we are searching for now I have seen a lot of inventions that are great but we just need that one that works for the masses.

[Business Attorney]

I'd settle for the next $10 million idea!

I agree that once we find out what the next big idea is, it will be so obvious in retrospect.

I'm not sure that I agree it will be in the mobile internet area, though. I suspect that there is still a YouTube, Flickr, Digg, Facebook or MySpace that will fill a social need that we don't see. It may even be something that exists in some overlooked corner of the internet and is simply waiting to be properly marketed (or to catch on virally).

[billbenson]

Remember that things like fiber optics in your house, faster and faster pc's and other devices that use microprocessors and dropping prices will create all kinds of opportunities for innovation.

Some of it will happen in mobil devices, but there are bandwidth limitations in mobil devices.

[Paul Elliott]

Some of it will happen in mobil devices, but there are bandwidth limitations in mobil devices.

Yes, Bill, as it now stands, but I remember a knowledgeable person opine in the early 1990s that the access over phone lines would soon reach its capacity because modems would be the bottleneck. That was when ISDN lines were just coming on the scene and DSLs hadn't been thought of (I presume).

I think we may even have a technology that makes an end-run around the whole cellphone issue. Virtual screens like the 3-D game in Star Wars? Perhaps.

Paul

[billbenson]

They certainly have come up with better multiplexing technologies in both the wireline and wireless arena and no doubt will continue to do so. I sold telecom equipment up until 99. The technologies have changed so much since then that I am a dinosaur.

Maybe I'm just old, but I see limits to mobil devices. Kids are going to play games, chat, etc. Business people need to get quotes out or other things while they are on the road. GPS's. I could see a plumber looking for that missing part at the closest location.

What I don't see is my wife who loves her gadgets surfing Macy's for the shoes she wants on a 3 inch screen. Voice detection technology could open up new worlds in small devices though.

Then there are things like police services and personal security that high bandwidths can allow. I have mixed feelings about big brother, but the home of the future may have preinstalled nanny / security cameras. Tracking devices to get rid of toll booths. Virtual cops.

So from a communications / internet standpoint, those are my guesses. Just guesses though.

[orion_joel]

I do think that the level of innovation is still not really peaked. The more abilities in the connections between device the more development will be focused on convergence devices. Internet enabled fridges(yeah available, but will become more intelligent and have more functionality).

While for the most part (from traditional) handset developers for mobiles are bringing down the size of devices, in the future i think this will begin to reverse, and the size will increase to accommodate the larger screens. As Bill suggests may be needed. To some extent Apple has started this trend, with the iphone. However with the ability of Bluetooth headsets and such i think that this screen size will be able to increase.

For a good portion i think that the internet will give birth to if not be the source of many more multi million dollar idea's. Not all coming from legitimate sources either, i read an article yesterday that suggested even just one of the spam networks known of could be potentially netting the people behind it in excess of $2 million per year. Which in the scheme of things when youa re talking about 100 million dollar ideas is small, but not an amount to dismiss. Even still i think that there will be many more legitimate businesses as well. Some will challenge and maybe even surpass current leaders, as well as some current leaders who may be will fail due to not paying attention.

Additionally besides just energy, one big industry that i think will take even more traction is compliance. While it is a current industry, i think much of the green compliance and consulting in this area, is still in it's infancy. Maybe more so in Australia, because of the government only just taking steps to work on improving the environment, however this will still be a part in other countries as well.

[vangogh]

What I don't see is my wife who loves her gadgets surfing Macy's for the shoes she wants on a 3 inch screen. Voice detection technology could open up new worlds in small devices though.

Bill 15 or 20 years ago I didn't see my mom sitting down behind a computer screen. She does regularly now. You don't see your wife on the web over her cell phone now, because the killer technology or app is missing. What if a few years from now the technology exists for your wife to easily check prices on shoes she's looking at in Macy's. She checks the price at a few other department stores around town and discovers the same pair of shoes in her size is 40% at another store so she puts them on hold there and buys them later in the day.

She may not surf over the phone. Most people don't. But using the internet on your phone isn't necessarily going to be the same thing as surfing on your computer at home.

[billbenson]

Actually, in that comment VG I was referring to something like women's clothes etc that you want a really good image of,not price. I could certainly see price shopping on a small screen. But it is far more difficult for items where you really want to get a good look at it.

Many stores like macy's today, have flash images where you can rotate around and look at all sides of an item. I'm sure those sort of things improve sales of items like I mentioned above dramatically. My wife spends a lot of time on them. One site that I believe does a lot of that is Victoria's Secret. That really makes sense because a lot of women may have some level of embarrassment going into the store. Their packages arrive anonymously as well. But they are really going to want to get a good look at that lingerie before buying.

[vangogh]

All I meant was that people won't be using mobile devices the same way they'll use their computer at home. I agree that most people aren't going to shopping on their phone the way you describe, though technological changes will make even that easier. Compare phones pre iPhone and post iPhone.

My earlier point when bringing up mobile devices as a potential location for the next big thing is that it will be different from how we use the web now, but something will come and someone will make a lot of money. Then many more of us will come to repeat the process. People carry cell phones and other mobile devices everywhere. They don't carry their computers everywhere. The most common way for people to connect to the internet will be mobile devices. It already is in several Asian countries I believe. Right now there may not be the one killer application or site that attracts the masses, but the person who develops that application or site or whatever it is will be making a lot of money.

[orion_joel]

I think that the phone will become more of a browsing tool, but the need for companies to make phone compatible sites will need to be addressed. Like today i checked a stock price on my phone, but the page that it tried to display was the same as if i had been on a normal computer, load time was much slower and it is was hard to navigate, but did eventually get what i wanted.

I think that anything that will be of large take up by consumers on mobile devices will quickly be a money spinner for them because really it would only take a single network provider or handset manufacture to take it on and it would be worth millions.

[vangogh]

A lot of the slow download times are because most sites still haven't considered mobile devices while developing. You are seeing more and more .mobi versions of popular sites, but most sites are only developed for a computer monitor.

As more people surf on their phones, more sites will develop for mobile in order to appeal to their customers.

[billbenson]

Relevant to this discussion. Bought a new cell phone for my wife tonight. She's a gadget freak and her current phone died.

New phone did a bunch of stuff. Web surfing, gps etc. The one she wanted didn't have the keyboard although she text messages a lot. What it did have was touch screen and the screen was the size of phone. The new phones we looked at were very thin but physically larger and had much larger screens than the last generation. Took 5 Mpx photos which were really good as well.

If this is a trend to go bigger in screen size on mobil devices, it could be that more surfing will occur as opposed to just sending emails or maps?

[vangogh]

Sounds like a phone emulating the iPhone. it really does make it easier to surf the web over the phone. Who knows where cell phone design will go next. but it isn't too hard to see how people will surf over mobile devices.

I think the next big thing on the cell phone will be something different though. Our cell phones go with us more than out computers do. We're easier to reach on a cell and theoretically we can use it more. Something just needs to get us to want to use our cells more.

[orion_joel]

It needs to be something that will catch people's attention and either give the impression of being easy (even if it does happen to take longer) or save time or money. At least in perception. In reality if it does not do these things then good marketing would be needed.

[vangogh]

It could be something that makes your cell phone indispensable for a variety of things. Imagine for example your cell phone becomes a sort of universal remote for your life. Maybe it becomes the key to your car and your house. Maybe by waving it in front of a cash register your credit card gets charged or money gets transferred for your checking account.

You get something to where a cell phone becomes indispensable and then you know most everyone has one with them always. Then the next level of services can roll out more successfully.

[Watchdog]

It could be something that makes your cell phone indispensable for a variety of things. Imagine for example your cell phone becomes a sort of universal remote for your life. Maybe it becomes the key to your car and your house. Maybe by waving it in front of a cash register your credit card gets charged or money gets transferred for your checking account.

You get something to where a cell phone becomes indispensable and then you know most everyone has one with them always. Then the next level of services can roll out more successfully.

Nice..that's thinking outside the box! I like it.

[billbenson]

It could be something that makes your cell phone indispensable for a variety of things. Imagine for example your cell phone becomes a sort of universal remote for your life. Maybe it becomes the key to your car and your house. Maybe by waving it in front of a cash register your credit card gets charged or money gets transferred for your checking account.

You get something to where a cell phone becomes indispensable and then you know most everyone has one with them always. Then the next level of services can roll out more successfully.

A friend has a high dollar Mercedes. He and his wife have a card they keep in their wallet. When he approaches the car, it detects the card, unlocks, adjusts the seat and mirrors for him. When his wife approaches the car, it does the same because of the card. Don't know what it does when they both approach the car. Everybody wants to give you a card for discounts these days. A better deal would be a code in your cell phone when approaching a car.

[vangogh]

Your friends should both approach the car at the same time and see what happens. Maybe one card unlocks the door and the other locks it again. It could make for an interesting sitcom episode.

I can see where in the next few years cell phones or another mobile device becomes the remote control for our lives. In the last few days I read about a system where you can pay for metered parking through your phone. I forget where it existed, but I think the system was in place in a limited amount in one city as an experiment. Think how nice it would be to be in a meeting and know you need to add more change to the meter. Instead of having to run back out to the car you dial a number and add another half hour. Maybe as the system is perfected you'd wave your cell in front of the meter when you park and when you leave and you'd only be charged for the exact time you used the space.

[rezzy]

Although that would be a great idea, what would happen to meter maids? And the city wouldn't be able to ticket people!

Many cities make nice profits on their tickets.

[vangogh]

Lovely Rita meter maid
nothing can come between us
When it gets dark I tow your heart away

Cities would probably still collect on tickets for all the people who don't bother paying for the meter and I'm thinking Rita and the other meter maids could find other work, perhaps monitoring the overall system. I'm guessing the city would also be collecting the money with a small fee to cell phone companies, though the system in general would probably save money on the reduced costs. Overall it's a huge benefit for drivers and I bet more people would end up paying for a meter as opposed to hoping they don't get caught.

[billbenson]

Years ago they posted a curve in the New Orleans airport at 15 mph and the sign was behind a bush. Got a ticket. I also knew a cop who said they were told that on average, people have a major traffic violation every three years. While I agree that parking tickets are a profit center, there would be a lot of pressure from the media to implement a system like Vangogh describes.

[Watchdog]

Around our facility the meter maid will never have to worry as we have a two hour limit and no card will move your car for you, especially when there is no where to move it to :)

But it's a great idea...

[orion_joel]

I think that in general the revenue from parking would maybe increase, because where now people will try and buck the meter a bit, especially busy times they will park pay for half hour, but maybe stay an hour (hoping not to get ticketed). With a system like this you could not get away with it, and the city would collect more in parking revenue because people are paying on a system where they cannot abuse the system especially with swipe on arrival and when you leave.

The Qld transport business in Brisbane Australia have introduced a similar system where you can purchase a card with credit on it, when you get on the bus you swipe the card, and when you get off swipe again, and it deducts the correct fair for that trip. I would guess that i calculates this based on a zone system. I believe the fairs are also discounted a little for using this system over cash.

[vangogh]

Who knows it the cell phone paid parking will every come into being, but I can see it happening. I'm sure the technology already exists. The cost would be in installing new meters or retrofitting existing ones.

It would be interesting to see if cities end up gaining or losing money with such a system. True they would lose revenue from the tickets (though I suspect there would still be plenty of tickets to hand out), but I do think more people would pay. Who hasn't let the meter expire and take a chance for a few minutes. If you add up the money from all those unpaid minutes it could easily outweigh the money collected from tickets.

[billbenson]

Not to mention that a 30 year veteran meter maid is probably making 60k a year with retirement. There could be project cities which will put pressure on other cities to upgrade.

[billbenson]

Getting late, but how about a dash cam device. Detect the meter maid and chunks money int the meter :)


I think that in general the revenue from parking would maybe increase, because where now people will try and buck the meter a bit, especially busy times they will park pay for half hour, but maybe stay an hour (hoping not to get ticketed). With a system like this you could not get away with it, and the city would collect more in parking revenue because people are paying on a system where they cannot abuse the system especially with swipe on arrival and when you leave.

The Qld transport business in Brisbane Australia have introduced a similar system where you can purchase a card with credit on it, when you get on the bus you swipe the card, and when you get off swipe again, and it deducts the correct fair for that trip. I would guess that i calculates this based on a zone system. I believe the fairs are also discounted a little for using this system over cash.

[orion_joel]

I would actually be inclined to say that there is technology available to pursue a very large number of different concepts, eg paying parking with a mobile (you can buy a coke with your mobile from a vending machine, so why not parking). What it comes down to though is a company willing to put the money and time into developing the concept, then packaging it in a way that they can get a council or government to spend a portion of their limited funding to take it up.

This is probably another one of those government things that if it was privatized we would see some very large changes to it as a whole, purely because all of a sudden, they want to make money off of it, and most likely would need a way to be sure they would get paid. Although i know in suggesting this it is something that would be very unlikely to happen, and would have very huge challenges in doing so.

[vangogh]

I think all the technology is there right now for everything I described with the parking meters. The hard part would be building the meters and replacing the existing ones with them.

Here's an idea I actually read about earlier today for using your cell phone to check into the airport. This has been tested and adopted in at least one airport on at least one airline. The idea is your phone would display an image of a bar code which could then be scanned at the airport to check you in. No more paper ticket.

[KristineS]

I think all these ideas are really cool, but what if you're a cell phone Luddite like me. I just recently bought a cell phone and almost never use it. I'm sure it does all sorts of cool stuff, but I wouldn't know.

I'm wondering how much of a problem the people who invent these cool new technologies will have with people who can't or don't want to use them.

[Business Attorney]

I have been reading this thread and was surprised to see this article (http://www.evanstonnow.com/story/business/bill-smith/2008-11-20/vendor-pay-for-parking-by-phone) about my own home town of Evanston, Illinois, considering a pay-by-cellphone proposal!

[vangogh]

Funny to see that article after this thread. I can't remember if it was the same company, but I originally mentioned the idea here after reading about it being tested somewhere in Texas (I think it was Texas).

Kristine I would think these kind of things would first show up as an addition to the usual. Over time more and more people would adapt to the new system. You might not do much with your cell phone now (I only do so much with mine), but you didn't always have a computer either and now you use one throughout the day. If there are enough reasons for you to use your phone more you'll start to use your phone more. It'll take one or two killer apps that after trying once you'll want to use again and again.