What's next in technology?

[seolman]

While conducting some market research for a client I ran across some (not new but) interesting data about how the need for efficiency drives leaps in technology. Here is a thumbnail of the blurb that caught my interest:

1970-80 Everyone wanted a mainframe
1980-90 Everyone wanted a desktop
1990-00 Everyone wanted a laptop/portable
2000-10 Everyone wanted a cell phone
2010-20 ?????

I used to work on a mainframe that filled a 40x40 foot room and cost millions of dollars. Now, my laptop can do more and is faster.

What will be the "Everyone wanted a...." tag for the decade between 2010-20?

[vangogh]

I'm not sure we'll really know until the end of the decade, but at this point I'd have to say

2010 - 2020 Tablet

I think in 2010 Apple showed that tablets are a viable market. They sold 15 million iPads which is about 5 or 6 times more than the most optimistic predictions. Consider too those numbers aren't even for a full year and about half the sales were in the last quarter. In 2011 we're going to see the first real iPad competitors and now predictions for the entire market are in the 50 million or so range.

For the majority a tablet handles all their computing needs. Most people want to surf the web, do email, visit a handful of specific sites like Facebook. Most people don't need the computing power they would get with a laptop or desktop. I expect over the next few year we'll see more tablets being sold and less laptops being sold.

If I have to predict today I'm going with tablet. Ask me again in a year or two though…

[seolman]

You may be right Steve. The struggle seems to be finding a product versatile enough to handle anyone's connectivity needs (ex: phone, email, web). I think the fight will be between tablets and smart phones; projections on spending for text marketing tops $1.1B for 2011 and $1.5B for 2012. A lot of businesses seem to be placing their marketing bets into text but you know how fast a new idea can take off.

[greenoak]

i think it will be the decade of ipads... ipads with easier hookups to printers and desktops..
..i have an ipad and people who dont have one seem to want one.... the size is so neater than the phone..and you can read in the dark!! ... my little relatives love it for angry birds...i can imagine lots of improvements on it....

[Harold Mansfield]

I agree that pads are the most logical step. But I think connectivity is holding it back from exploding. As soon as you can use a pad for everything (including phone) all bets are off. Right now mobile phone companies are getting the best of both worlds...service plans for pads that are separate from service plans for phones, even though products like the Samsung Galaxy have the ability to be used as both..it is just restricted by the phone companies in the U.S. to be used as such.

There are already companies betting that pads can replace text books in school and we can certainly agree that they can replace laptops in the business meeting. Most people don't need to carry a laptop, they basically just need a portable internet device that holds docs and that they can use for communication. Recent years have gone from how small can we make it, to getting back to practical usage and back to larger screen sizes that people can actually use and see.

The only 2 things missing from Star Trek are warp drive (and intergalactic travel), and transporters. We have everything else that was conceived on that show.

[vangogh]

I think the fight will be between tablets and smart phones

I think these will actually co-exist nicely. I can see in time voice recognition software will improve, which will allow smart phones to get smaller if they want. Of course smaller means much of what we do now with a smart phone can't be done. The screens are small enough, but assuming most people also have a tablet the stuff you need the screen for could find it's way to the tablet, which offers the better visual experience most of the time. Not always as smart phones are a good size for hand held gaming, where depending on the game tablets are still too heavy to hold comfortably.

I can also see where smart phones evolve to become the remote controls for our lives and mainly serving to be the interface for many of our other devices.

[vangogh]

I think connectivity is holding it back from exploding.

Competition will eventually change that. Right now we're at the point where you can tether your phone to your tablet, though at an added cost. In time and with competition I don't think you'll have to. You'll get one connectivity plan for you and be able to use it on multiple devices.


The only 2 things missing from Star Trek are warp drive (and intergalactic travel), and transporters. We have everything else that was conceived on that show.

Funny whenever I think of the voice recognition software I think how phones will work like the communicators on Star Trek. They'll be small enough to wear as a pin on our chest and we'll just tap them and talk and they'll respond.

[billbenson]

I currently use a transcription option for voice mails. Its frequently gibberish, but they get two things right. The phone number and name are almost always correct. Particularly the phone number. I rarely listen to voice mails anymore which is very convenient.

Rather than what devices are available in the future, I think is going to be on the software side. Getting you phone contacts, messages, favorites etc in a database with information on your PC or whatever other device is a ways off. Particularly when we all use different hardware, operating systems, and applications. I see the improvement of this, probably in the open source arena the wave of the future. Maybe this will evolve to a cloud sort of thing?

[Harold Mansfield]

The iPad2 launched today:
Live from Apple's iPad 2 event -- Engadget (http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/02/live-from-apples-ipad-2-event/)

Looks like it has a few things that were missing before but were on the iPhone and iPod...2 cameras, faster, lighter, same price, and an HDMI output.

I have a new phone ( regular phone) that you can attach up to 2 cell phones to, so that when you are home your cell phone rings on the "house" phone..which is a lot more convenient having everything tied together. Now, combine that with my headset which is tied into my computer, Skype, mobile phone and that "house phone" so that no matter which rings it goes to the headset (different sounds of course).

To me, it's tying all these things together so that they work seamlessly with each other to be the logical step. Having the same connectivity at home or the office that I have outside of the home or office, without having to carry a bunch of extra stuff AND multiple plans has to be the way we wrap this all up. I'm hoping to see more of this in the future.

[Dan Furman]

Agree w/ the pad thing.

I think in the next ten years, it all starts to merge together. You'll have just one device - it'll be computer, internet, phone, music player, movie viewer with all movies streaming, etc (we kind of have that now w/ the iphone, but it's really too small for most things). At home, you'll simply have a larger screen to plug it into.

[Harold Mansfield]

AT&T's commercial boasting about being able to talk and surf simultaneously is something I expected to be able to do anyway. I want a pad really bad, but until I can answer the phone on it...it's not really a mobile communication device. I don't want to carry a phone and a pad...especially since phone companies are the ones selling the pads and they have the capability. I'm not paying them for both, to run on the exact same network. If the phone can access the web, email, and do just about everything the pad can do including run apps, then why can't my pad take calls?

I'm still holding out until someone decides to stop screwing with us and double dipping on the billing, and stops blocking the functionality. As long as I have to pay 2 bills just to leave the house with the thing, it's not very practical to me.

[vangogh]

The AT&T commercial is more about phones. I don't think you can currently do that on Verizon's CDMA network. It's one reason if you have an iPhone on AT&T that you might not want to switch to Verizon. I think the commercial is mainly aimed at iPhone users thinking of switching carriers. I also think the ability to talk and surf is coming to Verizon soon.

Dan I can see the merging you're talking about. I don't know if we'll only own one device since it would presumably need to be small enough to carry around and the smaller devices don't currently have the computing power to satisfy enough users. Perhaps soon they will, especially when you consider the majority don't have high end computing needs.

I think we'll have different devices for different categories of users, though I would think in time when you connect your phone to the large monitor it's possible the monitor can provide additional computing power.

I also see more things coming into the mix. The tv is another place we've started to connect, though I don't think anyone has quite hit on what most people want. Add music and any other media to that mix. Perhaps down the line we take out our phones to unlock the front door of our house, start the car, turn on our appliances, etc. Some of that is already around, though again not quite how most people want.

Bill the synching is here as long as you stick with one product line. Because my devices are all Apple, my contacts and email, etc all synch quite well. Rumor has it Apple is going to make their mobile.me service free before long, which should make synching between devices even easier. I assume the situation is similar if all your devices are running Android and if you make use of Google products and services. Whether or not we get the seamless synching between companies is another story. There's little incentives for the companies to make it happen as they presumably want you to continue to buy their products. They'd also need to build their devices more similarly. That kind of synching probably doesn't happen until most everyone owns several categories of devices.

[Harold Mansfield]

I know it's beating a dead horse.(you guys know how angry this whole pad thing makes me). The kind of syncing I want to see is to use any device that the mobile phone company sells on my number. If my $149 home phone can do it, I'm sure a $699 pad can do it.
And I should be able to choose and set it up myself just as easily as I can add any other bluetooth device to my phone or pad. If my phone is BT ready and enabled, and my pad is the same...why can't my pad connect with my phone so that it can answer the calls the same as any other BT device?

(going to try and let it go now)

[Steve B]

We're a bit unusual. My wife and I each had an iphone for almost a year. But, unfortunately it required At&t service which SUCKS and they employ people who are bold faced liars. So, we finally paid the ransom and got out of our AT&T coverage. Unortunately, the best choice based on where we live is Nextel - which does not have a smart phone that is comparable to the iphone. SO, my wife and I each have a Blackberry for the phone function and she has a Galaxy and I have a Dell Inspiron Netbook. Together, we now have 4 devices to do what the two iphones did (with the one notable exception that the iphone really didn't successfully make a lot of phone calls for us). BTW - even though we now have 4 devices instead of two - our bill went down $100 per month.

I don't think my wife is thrilled with the apps. on the Galaxy yet, but she is learning. I'm guessing they will get better as it becomes more popular. She'd much rather have it all in one device and doesn't like carrying the Galaxy around. It's smaller than an ipad, but it still doesn't fit in most purses. My Netbook seems O.K. - I carry a briefcase in the car anway, so carrying it is no big deal to me. It is 4G capable - so it should meet my needs for a while. (VG - the big "need" is to access our customer database while on the road).

[vangogh]

Steve I think you unfortunately live in an area where AT&T's service isn't that great. Especially true as you're on the road often. I haven't had any problems with their service and so haven't had any need to contact their support. Not trying to say they're good or bad, but rather your location can influence any cell service quite a bit. If Verizon offers good service in your area and you still want an iPhone you can now get the iPhone on Verizon.

Interesting about the Galaxy. I would have thought it would easily fit in a purse. It looked small enough to fit inside most of my jacket pockets.

When I take my iPad with me I usually pack a backpack, though at times I'll just carry the iPad itself. It's not something I grab automatically when leaving the house, though I will grab it depending on where I'm going. My iPhone serves as the always with me device.

[jamesray50]

I still don't get the Ipad. What is so wonderful about it? You have to pay a service to use it. You can't make calls on it. You can't install software on it because it doesn't have a CD or DVD drive. It seems like a netbook except lighter to me. But, I am always behind in technology. I'll probably get one one day when they put them on the pay as you go plan. LOL.

[Steve B]

Verizon isn't a good option for me either. It's available, but my house is in an area where it doesn't reach. Of course the effectiveness of cell phone coverage is going to depend a lot on where you live. But, it's also very much a matter of what your expectations are. A lot of people around here think AT&T has good coverage because they never had anything better. But, even when I visited my Mom for three weeks who lives outside of Philadelphia - At&t was terrible out there also and during much of the drive on the interstates (compared to my prior carrier).

The Bold Faced Lie comment is because their sales people use a certain coverage map to show you where they have coverage. But, when I was unhappy with the coverage I got a technician (let's call him Bill) on the phone that was able to look at a map and tell me EXACTLY where I was losing coverage (down to the landmark on the side of the road). He transfered me to a higher level manager who started telling me we should have good coverage in those areas. I said please contact Bill and ask him what map he was looking it. Then, he actually did contact Bill and he then said "oh, I see what you're talking about now". So, the bold faced lie - wasn't just from a rogue salesperson - it was part of their official material. I was told I'd have a higher level manager call me back within 6 business days (that was almost a year ago). Still waiting. I'll take any opportunity I can to trash AT&T. I wish this forum had a million more subscribers!

Jo Ellen - you don't have to pay a service to use an Ipad. You can just use it on WIFI without a service. It's great for playing games and basic internet stuff. I personally wouldn't want to carry it (or a Netbook) around if the Iphone was still an option. But, the database that Steve wrote for my pet food delivery business is on the web, and it's really cool and efficient to call it up while I'm on the road and be able to look at everything and even update and enter things if needed while I'm out making money with my fence business. Now that I've experienced doing that - I'll always want/need that ability.

Steve - my wife said the Galaxy will fit in her bigger purses, but not the size she normally likes to carry around.

[billbenson]

Steve, I had a coverage problem with Verison after moving a few years back. Same thing, their coverage map says I had good coverage it was strong several blocks away, but not in my apartment. I'm pretty sure the problem was I was to close to their tower. The antennas cell companies use have no signal under them. They are usually an array of directional antennas. If you are close to the tower they can shoot over your head. The4 point being, their maps don't take things like that or objects in the way in to count. I ended up paying them to get out of my contract early. They treated me like crap as well so I'll never go back to Verizon if I can avoid it.

Just FYI

[vangogh]

Jo Ellen you don't need to pay a service to use the iPad. Last time I looked very few things I own can make phone calls, but most of them are still pretty useful. And you can install lots of software on the iPad. You do it by downloading through the App Store instead of installing a cd or dvd, which is actually a much easier and quicker experience. It's not meant to be a netbook. It's a different kind of device. You have to really hold one and use it for a few minutes to get a feel for what it is. There's a different experience holding it in your hands and touching the interface to surf the web or check your email or many other basic things you might do with any computer.

I don't know that you absolutely need a tablet, but I would say that I always find different ways to use my iPad that I never would have thought of before owning one. It's very versatile depending on what you want to do with it and what apps you download for it.

Steve I'm not sure I would call that a bold faced lie. Sounds more like they honestly thought it would work where you were and then realized it wouldn't upon seeing the map. It is possible they just made a mistake. If they continued to tell you service would work after seeing the map then I would consider it a bold faced lie.

Makes sense about the Tab fitting or not fitting. I guess as soon as you get past the size of a phone that might be a problem.

[Steve B]

Sorry Steve - it was absolutely a bold faced lie. The technician and the manager both admitted to me they have two maps - one that the sales people use and one that the technicians use (I thought I pointed this out already). The technician's map was accurate down to the mile marker that I consistently lost service - the sales map purposely didn't show the dead zones that the technician's map had. I guess I'll point out the technician and the sales person both worked for AT&T and both were looking at maps provided to them by their company. Of course, I pointed this discrepency out during my phone call I decribed. This is when I was promissed a return phone call within 6 business days. That was 10 months ago - I'm still waiting.

billbenson - unfortunately, that's not the case. Also, I had great coverage at my house, it was 1/4 mile in either direction that I lost service and many many many other places. The At&t service also introduced me to the concept of a dropped call. Many times I would be sitting in one spot - with 5 bars and I would be calling someone on a land line. Sometimes I'd have to call the person back three times to complete a 30 minute conversation.

[Business Attorney]

From what I read, a lot of AT&T's problems arose with the popularity of the iPhone and the "all-you-can-eat" data plans that allowed some iPhone users to use huge amounts of bandwidth in a system that wasn't designed to handle that kind of volume. If you go to a carrier that doesn't have the iPhone (or has seen what happened to AT&T and boosted their capabilities to meet the demand) then things should be more stable. In my area, AT&T has eliminate unlimited data plans and offers tiered measured plans that make a lot more sense. My cost has actually gone down. The people who want to stream movies several times a week to their phones, on the other hand, are paying more for their service.

[vangogh]

@Steve - Actually then the people who work there aren't bold faced liars as you originally stated. If you only give sales people a map that shows you have coverage and based on that map they tell you that you should have coverage, how exactly are the sales people lying to you. I can understand you being upset with AT&T the company, but it's not fair to accuse an employee of being a liar when they're only telling you the information they've been given and are aware of.

Be mad at AT&T the corporation all you want, but don't get mad at employees who are telling the truth based on the information they've been given.

[jpohl]

I've always thought the concept of the laptop and even the tablet will be gone. You will carry a device the size of a cell phone that will be a cell phone but it will also carry all your applications and data like a laptop with connectivity to the net. Between using cloud applications and the items on your new micromini computer, you will have everything you need. This device will also be an all encompassing ecommerce device that you can pay for things and come out of the account needed. The only thing that you will need is peripheral devices to be able to communicate and easily use the "device" such as a monitor and input device. The keyboard will die out towards the end as voice recognition software finally gets to a usable level. Your ID/drivers license will also be on the device.

[vangogh]

We're not really all that far off now from what you're describing. Smart phones can carry many applications and they connect to the net. They can pull data from the cloud and while limited you can use them to pay for things. With a little bit of 3rd party hardware they can accept credit cards and you can use them to get through airport security. They can also plug in to a limited set of different peripherals.

It's mostly a matter of more processing power and probably storage.

I agree that voice recognition will come eliminating the need for keyboards on phones, though I can still see the keyboard being there. I'm not sure how close we are to our "phones" being the device we use to plug into all peripherals. There's quite a way to go before the hardware can catch up to tablets and laptops. I think everything you're suggesting will happen. I'm just not sure it'll happen in this decade.

[seolman]

As a side point: many businesses are ensuring they are equipped for mobile communications by building .mobi sites. I can see web design tools morphing to meet the multiple types of interfaces. Example: sniff "iphone", display .mobi, sniff "iPad", display X, sniff "laptop/pc" display Y. Bigger coding demands will likely result in some sort of display driven improvements in CSS and lots of cool little hacks using JS/Jquery etc...

[jpohl]

I am not sure its going to be the be-all end-all technology of this decade but cloud computing seems to be catching on. I would have thought it to be a alternative technology until I saw MS Office head in that direction with 2010. Seems like Google Docs scared them a bit. More importantly, larger businesses are find the advantages of working in the cloud.

[vangogh]

I'm not a huge fan of cloud computing, since I generally prefer having the control over my data instead of handing it off to some company. However even if I'm not the biggest fan, I'm pretty sure that's the direction we're heading. It makes sense for anyone who needs to access the same data from several computers or needs to keep several devices in synch.

Dave I think you're seeing less people deciding to use something like .mobi for a mobile site. html, css, etc. are evolving to where it's easier to serve the same site to different devices and have it work well for all of them.

[Harold Mansfield]

One of the things that I find amazing is the differences between us and the rest of the world, even though most of the original technology was invented here.

In Europe there are free wifi hot spots everywhere. AT&T alone is one of the biggest providers of hot spots, where as in the U.S. they don't. Every place I go outside of a Starbucks or the airport does not offer any open wifi. The first thing you see when you try to access is a pay screen.

Internet access in countries like Korea, Japan, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Germany have faster internet speeds than we do. They boast average speeds of 50mbps, and here that is some kind of premium speed that I pay $120 a month for.

Devices like the Galaxy Tab are released around the world with phone capabilities, yet in the U.S. that function is blocked.

If I had a wish for where tech is going in the U.S., I would be happy to just catch up with everyone else on some of the simple stuff.

[vangogh]

I think the carriers see free wifi as something that will eat into their profits and something they'll fight to prevent. In Europe and Asia they didn't have a choice. Here the system was set up to let them charge for access.

The Internet is becoming so important that it's hard not to think it will one day be considered part of the country's infrastructure, not much different than our roads and highways. A few years ago you probably only used the Internet in your home or at work. Now that more of us are carrying around smart phones and beginning to carry around tablets we're all going to want to be connected all the time. We're going to be demanding open wifi everywhere we go.

At the very least the way payment is made now needs to change. We shouldn't be paying fees for each device. The connection should be tied to an account so I pay $x for y bandwidth (hopefully unlimited) and I can use that bandwidth on whatever device I happen to be using at the moment.

[Harold Mansfield]

We shouldn't be paying fees for each device. The connection should be tied to an account so I pay $x for y bandwidth (hopefully unlimited) and I can use that bandwidth on whatever device I happen to be using at the moment.

I would love to see that. Right now they are not only "nickle and diming" us, they are definitely over charging us and double dipping with the separate tablet accounts.

[vangogh]

Oh I know. I get so tired of listening to them complain about the cost of building the network. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the US taxpayers fund a large part of the building of those networks.

One payment per account makes so much more sense. I accept that it would probably cost more than what we pay to connect one device now, though I think that can be handled by offering several tiers of accounts.