Made in USA only [Archive] - Small Business Forum

Harold Mansfield

11-06-2009, 10:44 PM

Made in the U.S.A was all the big talk in the 80''s while companies were moving manufacturing to different counties over seas, and alas, because of that mass manufacturing exodus, we just don't make that many things in the U.S. anymore.

Most of the manufacturing in America "got" when the gettin was good, and they ain't coming back.

I think Americans talk a big game at the bar and at social functions, and some of it may be well intended, but when it comes right down to it, if you want to go on an "All U.S.A Products Only" binge, you would be living without ...

...half of your Automobile, No Cell Phone, No T.V., No CD, DVD, or Blue Ray Player, No Video Games, So Stereos in your Home or Car, No P.D.A, No Ipods, No Computer, Fax, No Sunglasses, Only A little bit of Jewelry, No Alarm systems, Electric Razor, Appliances (STove Refridge, Coffee Maker)....pretty much nothing electrical or with any moving parts.
Not to mention half of the food in a regular grocery store. While much of it may be manufactured here, a lot of the ingredients are imports, (Bananas,Fish and Vegetables form S. America just to name a few) ,not to mention the packaging.

You'd be back in the stone age. You would have to set up in a cabin out in the middle of nowhere because everything we use, do, and eat is made, or has components that were made outside of the U.S., or is transported using fuel from foreign countries.

We've pretty much screwed ourselves to the point that technology, entertainment and military are our biggest exports.

(Man, that was a big downer...I got depressed just typing it)

Steve B

11-07-2009, 05:01 AM

Best of luck to him. I imagine it will be difficult for him to survive if it affects his prices. I can't imagine too many people are too hung up on where their plumbing parts come from. I know a few of people who will only buy cars with names on them that give them the perception they have bought an American made product, but I doubt even those people will care that much about plumbing parts.

Unfortunately, "Green" and "American Made" (along with socially responsible investments) have a tough time if it's not cost neutral.

huggytree

11-07-2009, 08:57 AM

it is a way to only get higher end customers...if your whole advertising campaign is about forein junk and how you are USA made only...Im curious how it will do.

You may get alot of Engineer types who want to plan the project out for you..these customers drive me nuts...its definately a certain type of customer who would be interested...

Spider

11-07-2009, 09:27 AM

...we just don't make that many things in the U.S. anymore...
...We've pretty much screwed ourselves to the point that technology, entertainment and military are our biggest exports.
(Man, that was a big downer...I got depressed just typing it)According to the CIA World FactBook, (an excellent source of real facts - as opposed to the invented "facts" that "everyone knows" - about all countries, including the USA) --

1. The US still has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, with a per capita GDP of $46,900. (The second largest, China, is half as big, and the US economy is almost as big as China, Japan and India combined. The EU, European Union, is 5% larger.)

2. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in computers, and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment.

3. 25% of the US working population is employed in manufacturing, extraction, transportation, crafts, farming and forestry.

4. The US is a close third highest oil producer, after only Saudi Arabia and Russia. Fourth largest is Iran, with half the oil production of the USA. Kuwait, for example, is way down the list with one third the oil production of the US.

5. The US is also the 17th largest oil exporter!

6. The US is the third largest exporter overall. More than half (55%) of US exports are capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers, telecommunications equipment) and consumer goods (automobiles, medicines.) IOW, manufacturing is not dead.

7. The US is also the largest importer - being #3 exporter and #1 importer makes the US the powerhouse of international trade.

8. The US imports as much from Canada as it does from China, and exports 4 times as much to Canada as it does to China. Also, the Mexico trade (US imports and exports) equals US trade with China.

I hope that makes you feel a bit better!

Harold Mansfield

11-07-2009, 12:05 PM

I hope that makes you feel a bit better!

A little. It seems I remember some of those numbers being a little better in our favor, especially manufacturing, but it is a changing world and a world economy.

Steve B

11-07-2009, 12:44 PM

#3 is even worse than I would have thought. I wish I knew what that number was 30 years ago.

handprop

11-07-2009, 02:07 PM

The first number is useless because because China has a population of about 1,300,000 compared to population in America of about 300,000. It also needs to be compared to available work force and in china it's a totally different ball game.

I come from a family of manufacturing companies and those numbers also don't mean much until you begin to compare it to other numbers. Manufacturing is leaving America at a record rate.

My fathers primary company has produced phenolic since 1927 and is ranked third worldwide, sounds great until you realize the total compensation of the factory worker is over $50 per hour. China is working very hard on producing the same product and they willbecause they have government funding to do it. In the next couple of years they will have it figured it out and will be the sole producer for the entire world. When labor rates are almost nothing in China it becomes very difficult to compete and in many cases impossible.

Spending 500,000 a month on keeping polution within standards while China does nothing about it makes it a little tougher also. When it's all said and done the future of buying products manufactured in the states will be increasingly difficult and marketing it might be really hard. It makes me feel good a business owner wants to try but I have my reservations.

Just my two cents!

Mike

billbenson

11-07-2009, 02:24 PM

Something like this is going to be regional in the US. California may want to be green, but its a technological area and they are used to outsourcing.

I come from an international sales background, have spent half of my career selling us products outside the US. Buy American is not the reality today. We sell internationally and should buy internationally. We shouldn't export technology outside the US and empheszie education, particularly in technology which we are good at.

Factory workers in the midwest are going to have the opposite opinions because of their backgrounds. Buy US may have a large impact on them.

Not to mention Made in USA probably means assembled in USA for the most part. There is stuff that is just not available in the usa. I bet just about anything complicated including plumbing fixtures has a part in it that was imported.

Spider

11-07-2009, 08:51 PM

Frankly, I cannot understand this general wish for more manufacturing jobs in the US. Manufacturing was the basis for Britain's growth in the 19th century and America's growth in the 20th.century. It will be the basis for China's growth in the 21st.century. Manufacturing is a way to drag the peasants into a new, more advanced and fulfilling life, with a higher standard of living. But you can't stop there. To hang on to America's manufacturing past would be to try to stop advancement. And who wants that?

I say, export the manufacturing jobs as much as possible and let us move forward to a better life. What is so glamorous about a manufacturing job, anyway? Let the Chinese have those ugly, dirty and tiring jobs. We have brains to use, and this is supposed to be the dawn of the Information Age, is it not?

America did not become powerful and wealthy on the backs of its manufacturing classes - it became powerful and wealthy on the brains of its innovators, explorers and inventors. Any Tom, Dick and Harry can learn to turn a lathe or operate a drill press, but consider the mental capacity needed to research and catalog the human genome, determine the trajectory to put a space satellite into precise orbit around another planet's moon a gazillion miles away at the far reaches of our solar system. What wonders are being discovered and invented every day in our laboratories and design studios!

They say that the world's knowledge base is expanding so rapidly that students beginning a university course this year will be applying for jobs in 4 years time that do not even exist today. What they learn in their first year will be obsolete by the time they graduate! That's what we should be addressing - not trying to keep manufacturing jobs in this country.

Massive progress and great improvements in living conditions were accomplished during the industrial era. It is time for America to look to the next great leap of improved living conditions, and that will not be found in the factories. It will be found on the internet and in space, and it will be found by our intellect, not our muscles.

Paper Shredder Clay

11-09-2009, 04:35 PM

Sadly, I have to totally agree with you. Its sad when we can import from great distances and still be a great deal cheaper than producing it here.

I would love to buy only American but that's not easy to do nowadays. MY sister-in-law told me, recently, she watched a TV program about how only 5% of all clothes are produced in the USA, a very drastic change the last few years...

HT, you have hit on a very timely topic. Most people who would love to go 100% American made are not willing to spend the extra money for that during difficult economic times.

It is similar to the "green" issue. People are very interested in saving the environment until it actually costs them money they feel they can ill-afford.

A good strategy here is to let him test the water .. and the market ... while you watch from a distance. :)

Paul

dynocat

11-13-2009, 10:41 AM

I say, export the manufacturing jobs as much as possible and let us move forward to a better life. What is so glamorous about a manufacturing job, anyway? Let the Chinese have those ugly, dirty and tiring jobs. We have brains to use, and this is supposed to be the dawn of the Information Age, is it not?

Elitist much?

Some factory workers with "those ugly dirty, and tiring jobs" may actually enjoy the work, benefits, pay, camaraderie, etc. I bet a few of them even use their brains once in awhile. Not everyone is suited to work in "laboratories and design studios" or "on the internet and in space," kwim?

KristineS

11-13-2009, 01:16 PM

"Made in the USA" and "green" products sell very well to certain portions of the population. It really depends on how important that particular feature is to the person who is making the purchase. For some people being "green" is worth the extra cost. For others "Made in the USA" gives them the feeling they are supporting American jobs and that is worth the cost.

The best way to know whether any particular program will work in your area is to give it a test run. You can offer options on supplies, such as a regular option and a made in the USA option. People will choose which they want. If you find the Made in the USA isn't selling well, then obviously it's not something that is important to people in your area.

Vangogh made a very good point too when he pointed out that just because something isn't important to you (environmentally friendly houses) that doesn't mean it isn't important to people who might buy from you. The best way to know is to ask. Your customers will tell you what matters to them.

Dan Furman

11-13-2009, 01:27 PM

Elitist much?

Some factory workers with "those ugly dirty, and tiring jobs" may actually enjoy the work, benefits, pay, camaraderie, etc. I bet a few of them even use their brains once in awhile. Not everyone is suited to work in "laboratories and design studios" or "on the internet and in space," kwim?

I think Frederick's point was more that these types of jobs have a limit in terms of standard of living they can provide, and they cannot keep pace as standards increase. While not all manufacturing jobs are unskilled / limited skill, most are. And there's only so much you can pay someone to do a fairly simple task, especially if someone else will do it a lot cheaper.

To give an extreme example (albeit not in manufacturing), I once knew a cashier at a supermarket chain who was making $30 an hour due to being in a union, etc... the chain quickly saw that would be an issue, and got rid of the union. You can't have cashiers making $30 an hour. It just doesn't work.

Paul Elliott

11-13-2009, 02:28 PM

And there's only so much you can pay someone to do a fairly simple task, especially if someone else will do it a lot cheaper.

Someone else ... or some robot -- doesn't get sick, complain of working conditions, need benefits, ask for more money, etc. ;)

Paul

low bidder

11-15-2009, 11:25 AM

"Peak Oil" may have the side effect, or should I say benefit, of making American made goods more competitive. One can only hope. We must look for silver linings or go bonkers.

Harold Mansfield

11-16-2009, 01:24 PM

I have to agree with Spider and Dan on this one.

A prime example....I don't know when was the last time that any of you have been to Vegas, or how often, but the Change Girl used to be a staple in just about every casino (a girl that pushes around a cart full of money to give change, sell cigarettes, yo-yo's, and other knick knacks, mainly to slot players, so that they don't have to leave the machines).

It wasn't a bad gig. A decent hourly plus tips and of course casino benefits (medical, vacation pay, ect). I knew change girls that made over $100 a day in tips, + $11 - $18 an hour (depending on how long they had been there) and benefits for them and their kids (and of course have stories of $1000 tips from players that hit in their section)

Well as more machines stopped taking and paying out in coins and started taking bills and paying out in tickets, AND, combining ATM's (which are everywhere) with ticket redemption, the need to pay 3 shifts of humans started becoming a little less necessary and today you don't see change girls walking around anymore.

The whole position is gone, probably putting a few thousand change girls out of work.

There were a few news stories and a couple of small protests but it was squashed and forgotten quickly.

It also eliminated the need for so many cashier cages throughout the casino ( a security concern that needed more people work, protect and monitor).

So now they have ATM's spread throughout where you can get money, and cash in your tickets. So one ATM can take the place of probably 5-7 people (per shift). It works 24/7, and doesn't need anything but an electrical outlet and a few techs to keep them all running and full of money.

Do you really think any casino is going to go back to employing change girls when they don't have to, just to employ a few thousand people to do a job that doesn't take any skills or training other than to be able to count?
It's not exactly rocket science...it's making change.

I don't have a problem with jobs like that being eliminated, We can't hold on to unskilled jobs and expect to be paid well for them. It's ridiculous. They aren't worth the kind of salary that one should be able to pay a mortgage, car payment and insurance for the family and it's silly to expect anyone to pay you for it just because you have needs.

So maybe we don't manufacture a lot of things here anymore, but can you really blame the companies that have moved overseas ?
Americans want it all and think they deserve top wages for everything, even if they have no education or skills that are in demand.

If you have a degree integral to your profession or technical skills that are in need, you should certainly get paid your worth. But it has gotten out of control that American's think they deserve more than they are worth.

The key to our future is in education. The days of getting a job at the plant with a HS diploma and a "C-" GPA and sending 3 kids to college are over...have been over for a long time. And I don't see any reason to go backwards and bring unskilled labor back to America. No one will work for a fair wage anyway.

In today's America, if you don't know how to do something, don't expect to get paid something.

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 07:10 PM

If you have a degree integral to your profession or technical skills that are in need, you should certainly get paid your worth. But it has gotten out of control that American's think they deserve more than they are worth.

The key to our future is in education. The days of getting a job at the plant with a HS diploma and a "C-" GPA and sending 3 kids to college are over...have been over for a long time. And I don't see any reason to go backwards and bring unskilled labor back to America. No one will work for a fair wage anyway.

In today's America, if you don't know how to do something, don't expect to get paid something.

GREAT post!!!!

The part I quoted above I feel is really the crux of the economic crisis we were/are/will be in. We want X in our lives, but we can only really afford Y. And that's a problem.

billbenson

11-16-2009, 07:51 PM

Agree 100% Eborg

handprop

11-16-2009, 08:13 PM

The entire economy depends on manufacturing. Tell an economist you want manufacturing out of America and let me know what he says. Destroy manufacturing and America gets destroyed, opinions have nothing to do with it.

Do you have any idea how many of you folks depend on manufacturing? Of course you don't, manufacturing is the act of creation and that is what builds an empire.

You don't honestly expect everyone in this country to work in a cubicle do you? When times get tough office jobs are easy jobs to eliminate and is always the source of real company cutbacks, otherwise known as waste.

To even have a conversation about this subject is idiotic at the very minimum. I mean really.......have any of you taken a course in basic economics? It's the first and last topic discussed even at the high school level. It's really the only subject discussed by economists, they don't sit around talking about office jobs because they know that manufacturing supplies office jobs.....the so called educated people.

Every one of you on this forum depends on manufacturing to have the lives you live, and each job you have depends every bit on manufacturing.

If education is so important I would expect each and every one of you to at least grasp the very basics of how an economy functions. To have a country without a manufacturing base would put us behind the competitive curve and we would never be able to recapture it once it's gone.

Holy Smokes I can't believe what I'm hearing, education has nothing to do with being paid what your worth. Look at the economy now.......what do you see????? Do you have any idea how many educated people are jobless??????

I'm a hard core Republican but I can still see the value of why our president is so scared to loose the manufacturing in this country....because it's a known fact that when it's gone your gone, America is gone.

You folks that don't understand this should spend some time in other countries, do that and you will understand why they are in a struggle to create as much manufacturing as they can. They understand that the more they have the stronger they become.

I realize everyone will be on the defense and somehow come up with some magical theory on how I'm wrong but it doesn't matter what I think, It has nothing to do with me, I actually have no opinion on the matter. Facts are stubborn things and opinions don't matter. Any respected economist at any institution will easily validate this.....it's common sense.

Mike

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 08:34 PM

Personally, Mike, I think most office jobs are unskilled, too.

And I don't think there's any fix. We, as a country, cannot support the life we want to have. We had a very brief golden period after WW2 where we made most of the world's stuff, and were clearly "#1". It started going away slowly in the 70's, and is really coming home to roost now.

The US will go down in standard of living. It's inevitable. No amount of slogans, or hoping, or wishing will make it different.

handprop

11-16-2009, 08:51 PM

billbenson

11-16-2009, 09:07 PM

Overpaying unskilled workers for producing products is pretty close to a socialized concept. What you are failing to realize, Mike is that it is a world economy today. Yesterday cars were built in Detroit, today in Japan. Whats the difference. They aren't built where I live. We buy from international companies and sell to them. That wasn't so true 20 years ago.

Its a world economy and we can't compete on most manufacturing. We have always been strong in engineering, and other fields. That what we do well, not manufacturing.

The manufacturing based economies today are in places where labor is cheap and you can't do anything about that.

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 09:13 PM

I wasn't responding to you Dan, I just wanted to clear that up. I was responding to the folks who think America can become a manufacturing free economy.

You are right about the standard of living though, and that's got every economist working overtime trying to figure out how to keep manufacturing right here......the standard of living has a direct connection to manufacturing because manufacturing is a wealth creator while service jobs are wealth consuming, and it's the balance between the two that has really become out of wack.

Yea, I know you weren't directly responding to me. But I did think your post interesting, because a lot of people agree with that. To a point, I do, too.

The problem is, manufacturing only pays good wages when there are buyers for the product. For the "Golden Age" I mention (say, 1945-1975) there were plenty of buyers, because we were generally the only country who could make stuff (Europe and Japan were rubble, and had to start over.) There aren't buyers anymore (us included), because our prices are too high.

I have said this here before, but I think those years were an anomaly - it wasn't "real". It was all fabricated by WW2. Yet, it's what we, as a country, yearn for. To get a better look of "how things should be", look at the time from the industrial revolution until WW2. A few rich, a few well-off, and everyone else pretty darn poor. No middle class. THAT'S most likely how things are going to end up. And the unskilled, both white and blue collar, will not do well.

But we will first do every imaginable bailout, and borrow every dollar we can, before we accept that.

Spider

11-16-2009, 09:14 PM

The entire economy depends on manufacturing. Tell an economist you want manufacturing out of America and let me know what he says. Destroy manufacturing and America gets destroyed, opinions have nothing to do with it....At one time - before manufacturing became the basis of the economy - land was the basis. Landowners in those days ruled. The whole of society revolved around the land and who owned the land. Land was the basis of wealth, and therefore the basis of the economy. Things were made but they were made by the people who would use them.

Then trade in homemade goods grew to cottage industries, manufacturing developed and factories (centralized locations of manufacture) made things more efficiently and the industrial revolution took hold. But for a long time, factories and productive capacity were of no value despite the money they were making, because the whole world view of society was that only land had any real value. Land only was permanent, factories. etc were temporary. "Manufacturing" was a concept and not real things. Only real things could have value and the more permanent those things the more value they had.

We got over that and found value in manufacturing. Land now only had value in terms of its productive value - how much wheat it could produce, how many factories could be built on it and how much wealth those factories could produce. The land itself was of little regard. Today the value of the land a house stands on is a small fraction of the value of the house. Yet the land is permanent and the house is temporary!

A similar shift will happen. Manufacture will become valueless. I don't know what value will replace it, but let's say it's something like personal happiness. Manufacturing will only have value in terms of human happiness it allows to be created.

I know - it can hardly be contemplated because our manufacturing minds will not accept that human happiness has a comparable, measurable "value." Just like those long time landowners could not contemplate the value of manufacturing.

It's like speaking in a different language. But, rest assured, a new language is being learned, slowly, somewhere, by some people. And it will catch on and take over the world. America has just as much opportunity to learn this new language (whatever it is) as any other nation. If it doesn't, whoever does will become the next world leader.

The only thing I know for sure is that it will not be manufacturing.

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 09:15 PM

Its a world economy and we can't compete on most manufacturing. We have always been strong in engineering, and other fields. That what we do well, not manufacturing.

And the problem is we have 290 million unskilled, and 10 million skilled.

But those 290 mil want the American dream too.

billbenson

11-16-2009, 09:21 PM

And the problem is we have 290 million unskilled, and 10 million skilled.

But those 290 mil want the American dream too.

Which goes back to Eborgs point which is very important - Education!

Harold Mansfield

11-16-2009, 09:30 PM

Mike, I'm not saying we should do away with manufacturing, but, it has become impossible for most companies to stay in business if they are forced to pay unskilled labor a ridiculous amount of money and benefits that don't match the skill level.

Not only that, but, manufacturing has progressed now to computer design, 3D animation and automation. The old days of bolting on hoods at the Ford Plant for $36 an hour are over. Americans need to now learn how to design and fix the robotic arms that do the job if they still want to make that same $36 an hour or better.

Ask any teenager what they think of minimum wage and they think it's beneath them, even though they have no skills.
In this country, our wants don't match our skill level and education and that has become the problem that ran manufacturing out of the country and why so many companies like Walmart fight against unions. If I was WM , I wouldn't pay a cashier $18 an hour either..I don't care how many bills and children they have..that's not my problem...this is an $11 an hour job.

I watched this unfold in my home town (Detroit) since the 1980's. Manufacturing became more advanced, and efficient and the workers didn't educate themselves to keep up on changing technologies...they only demanded more and more from the big 3 to the point where they couldn't compete anymore. They broke them and they didn't do anything to increase their value to the company...so of course a factory full of robots in Mexico was the better deal and the people that now know how to maintenance those robots are still working, and getting paid well. (Note: I should also add that bad products, and ridiculously top heavy management among other things also killed the big 3)

My best friend growing up now works for the UAW and even though the writing has been on the wall for over 30 years, the workers still don't get it (the ones that are left)...we are digital now..we don't need anyone to write things on paper and we certainly can't pay you $90k a year to do it.

There are still people in Detroit waiting for manufacturing to come back and actually fighting for it....they don't get it...unless we can take the whole state of Michigan back in time to the 1970's, even if it does come back, they don't have the skills to work it.

Spider

11-16-2009, 09:50 PM

But those 290 mil want the American dream too.
-- Which goes back to Eborgs point which is very important - Education! But what will we do with 290 million educated people?

vangogh

11-16-2009, 10:21 PM

I haven't been posting much in this thread, but I've been following the discussion. Very interesting. I want to add to Frederick's point about the economy being based on land and then moving toward manufacturing. That's exactly right. Things change. People change. Society changes.

If I may suggest it we might be moving into the information age. More and more manufacturing is capable of being automated. Perhaps the next age the value will be in the information showing how to automate systems better, quicker, that produce more. The companies that do well will be those that figure out how to get their machines to work better than the next company. People will be needed to build and repair the machines until someone figures out how to get the machines to build and fix each other. Little by little people will be pulled out of the equation.

That's not a bad thing. Because the information is so freely available the person who at one point would have been working on the factory line now has the information at his or her disposal to build a machine on a smaller scale. In fact maybe we'll figure out that it doesn't make sense to build as many things as possible in one place, but that it's ultimately more efficient to build a few in many different places.

I'm speculating here. The point is we don't know what will come next until after it's come. But again things change. Just because manufacturing has been the backbone of the economy for a long time doesn't mean it always will be. And while it will be painful for some, most of us will adapt and in the end have a better state of living.

What we're seeing now is manufacturing jobs leave the U.S. and go where it's cheaper to manufacture. Like Bill said

Yesterday cars were built in Detroit, today in Japan. Whats the difference.

What is the difference? As long as you can still buy a car why does it really matter where it was built. Maybe less cars are being built in Detroit and because Detroit's economy is still based on manufacturing cars it hurts the local economy. But it's helping the economy in Japan. We're becoming a global economy and manufacturing jobs are leaving the U.S. because as Frederick said the value of manufacturing is being replaced by something else that we don't quote know yet.

With Detroit less auto manufacturing isn't necessarily a bad thing either. Maybe short term it hurts, but it ultimately gives Detroit the freedom to find something else.

billbenson

11-16-2009, 10:29 PM

As you said above Spider, the "new market" has yet to be found, but you can't put 290M people to work in retail or manufacturing. Better to have them educated to find new career paths in whatever emerges.

Remember, Spider, one of the benefits of formal education, particularly in young adults is it teaches the ability to learn. The ability to adapt to the changing times is critical. I had my career end after 22 years. It was the ability to learn on my own, that was taught to me in college that helped me to pick up a different career.

handprop

11-16-2009, 10:39 PM

Hey, were entering a paradox now........Nothing beast great conversation.:D

Not to scare anybody but put this in your pipe and smoke it.

Economists pretty much agree that America will always have a manufacturing base once we find the right balance to compete on a global scale. As you all know I come from a family of manufacturing businesses and it's not as easy to manufacture in China and India as it might seem......but you want to know what is easy?

The hot topic now with leading economists is the other jobs that can be done overseas. Education can be a real paradox because everything is now done on a computer and that means any country can do it.

Think about it, it's really the next phase in the global condition. Engineering??? India does a ton of it now and sends it through the internet. Why would you staff an engineer for $150,000 a year when you can get it cheap in another country online?

Financial????? Do some research and you will discover that it's been done for years now and it's growing at a rapid rate. My wife is a CPA and I hear it all the time how taxes are almost always done in India. Tax people just set up a satellite service.......send it to India.......and bang, they send it back, all for the low price of $2 a day.

Need a Lawyer????? According to my attorney that's starting to happen now also.

How about no skill jobs like McDonalds????? Yup, that's overseas now as well. McDonalds is experimenting with certain restaurants and now when you place an order it's actually taken from a person in India who has undergone extensive training in how to speak like an American. From what I was told we can't tell the difference because it's spot on. McDonalds is really happy with the results and plan to convert all the stores.

Internet businesses????? That's a no brainer. Right now we enjoy a good chunk of it but take a look at the population of India and China and compare it to America. The one thing about the internet is that it's blind and anyone can compete. Imagine trying to compete on a global scale with an internet business like retail.

Books.......Ah yes, how American is that????? Not any more, as we speak both China and India are looking to dominate in that field, and they will. They will write the books, manufacture the books, and sell the books. It's all happening as we speak.

The population in these countries is massive compared to the USA the people are just like we are and want a piece of it.

Like I said, it's the new hot topic with economists and they have all come to the conclusion that we will need manufacturing, and like Dan said, expect the standard of live to make a major shift.

Mike

vangogh

11-16-2009, 11:04 PM

Economists pretty much agree that America will always have a manufacturing base once we find the right balance to compete on a global scale.

I'm not saying manufacturing will disappear entirely. We still have an agricultural base her too. More that a large amount of manufacturing will be replaced by something else. I agree too that it's not just manufacturing that's moving out of the country. Globally we've reached a point where we can travel and communicate around the planet quick enough that it makes economic sense in many cases to have certain things done outside your country.

What it all comes down to is the change that's always happening and adapting to that change. Sooner or later the world is going to find different sources of energy than what we use now. Maybe it will be solar or wind or nuclear or something completely new. What will that do to the oil industry? The coal industry? They might go away, they might end up having different uses, but those industries will change.

We don't really know what's coming next and probably won't realize it's come for years after it's here. I think what we're seeing with manufacturing is a combination of a global economy where it makes more sense to do certain things in different parts of the world and an evolution to how things are done in general.

handprop

11-16-2009, 11:04 PM

billbenson

11-16-2009, 11:10 PM

As far as Engineering and Internet services, you are forgeting one very important thing. Management and Marketing. Engineering "tasks" are shipped to india, but its engineers in silicon valley who write the specifications in conjunction with marketing. Without both of these the engineers will design junk. The truly skilled people are here, because that is what we do well.

Internet business? Most internet business's fail. Why? Because they require a unique combination of marketing and web design which is really engineering. You can have a program written for you with a GOOD specification, but the people with the knowledge to come up with the specification are here.

For these two tasks, what is being exported is only the menial portion of the task. The true skill is here.

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 11:12 PM

I agree with you, Mike. The simple fact is, we've become used to having an astonishing standard of living - and it's one that simply cannot be sustained. It's not just education, etc. I mean, let's pretend our entire polulation has bachelor's degrees... 300 million bachelor's degrees means they are all of a sudden worth an awful lot less.

If you look at the amount of the world's resources and wealth the US has had over the years, you'd see it's amazingly disproportionate. Yet we feel that's deserved. Well, WHY do we deserve so much more than other countries? The fact is, we don't. And it will not continue.

There is no solution. The best thing one can do is make sure they are exceptional. Do something useful - something that most others around you cannot do as well as you.

handprop

11-16-2009, 11:16 PM

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 11:20 PM

Not to inject more confusion but for those of you who enjoy deep thought let's revisit education. What would you go to school for these days??? Imagine a true global economy where everything is online and we have to compete with everyone, what would be the area of study??????

I for one can honestly say I have know idea.

Mike

It's not so much an area of study, it's being exceptional at whatever it is you do. People who don't like to work will not succeed in the coming years.

In all honesty, I think being able to fix things / being good with your hands will be valuable in the next thirty to forty years.

I also think people who can sell / communicate will always be in demand. This is one reason I'm in the field I'm in. Cause I'm really good at it - I can write persuasively. That's rare. You can't fake creativity or sales talent. If you got it, flaunt it! :)

handprop

11-16-2009, 11:25 PM

Hey Dan I can do something that most others cannot, I can touch my nose with my tongue........Trouble is I can't seem to get paid for it.:D

All kidding aside just look at what this country is used to. Here is a topic that never gets talked about, BIG HOUSES!!!

Look around, check out the standard of living. There was a time in this country where a 800 sq. ft. home was a god send. People raised families in these little homes we all see in the city but now everybody has to have a 4,000 sq.ft. monster.

The environmentalist want to turn these big monsters into the GREEN thing but how green in a little 800 sq.ft. home with just a simple living room, kitchen, and three small bedrooms? Don't want to get off topic but we would be better off if a house payment is $400 a month. The standard of living is sometimes perception.

Just a thought

Mike

handprop

11-16-2009, 11:30 PM

It's not so much an area of study, it's being exceptional at whatever it is you do. People who don't like to work will not succeed in the coming years.

In all honesty, I think being able to fix things / being good with your hands will be valuable in the next thirty to forty years.

I also think people who can sell / communicate will always be in demand. This is one reason I'm in the field I'm in. Cause I'm really good at it - I can write persuasively. That's rare. You can't fake creativity or sales talent. If you got it, flaunt it! :)

Working with your hands? That means were back to where we started 60 years ago.:D

You are right about that, a hands on skill is very important

Mike

Dan Furman

11-16-2009, 11:37 PM

Don't want to get off topic but we would be better off if a house payment is $400 a month. The standard of living is sometimes perception.

Just a thought

Mike

In my social circle, I am known as someone who lives a pretty good life. My wife and I take nice vacations, my wife works 4 days a week, and I try to work 4 days a week (officially, anyway). We live pretty stress-free.

People often ask "how".

Lots of reasons, but one of our secrets is our modest 900 sq ft house on 1/3rd of an acre in a nice neighborhood. Our footprint is small, and our mortgage is dirt cheap.

Having no kids is another of my advantages... but I'll stay away from that one :)

I agree with you - the homes (and mortgages) people take on are ridiculous.

vangogh

11-16-2009, 11:39 PM

Mike if I were going back to school I do the same thing I did the first time around. I go for something I was interested in and not worry so much about the economic consequences of it. Even during the 4 years you spend to earn a degree the hot industry may have cooled and the industry you didn't know about is suddenly taking off.

I think you can make money no matter what specific technical skills you have. It's more important to be able to acquire new skills as needed.

billbenson

11-16-2009, 11:45 PM

Bill, that skill can be easily done on the other side of the ocean, and it will be. Time will tell I guess but in my experience people are people and they want the same things we all want........In a true global economy the fact that "We do it best" just doesn't hold water. Why can't they do it? Do they lack the capacity to learn? I don't think so, just look at what has changed in the last 10 years alone.

To say "We do it best" is, in my opinion, a little short minded.

Mike

What skill? Marketing, product development, product management? We don't export any of those skills and never will. India would first need to become a entrepreneurial country and use their engineers to develop their own products to sell to us to do that. Thats not what they are doing. They are developing a skilled workforce, not an innovative entrepreneurial workforce.

handprop

11-17-2009, 12:12 AM

If I would have to do it all over again I would be a shepard in Ireland, ahhh Ireland.....It's so cool. I would tend to my sheep and read books to my children in my little stone house. I would have 1 car that I would share with my neighbors and we would drink beer and I would play my ukulele before bed each night. My wife would agree with the above, to experience Ireland is to experience life.

Anyhow,
I love what I do but the world is really changing, I would like to be able to predict the future but I was wrong about the internet when it first started. I always knew it would be big but I had no idea it would be what it is today, and it's just started really, at least I think it has. When it's all said and done the internet and the world will be much different than we think it will be.

My sister has been to India many times and they are really spending time investing in education, and they have there sights directly on American companies. India, not China, will become the number one place of outsourcing IMHO.

Mike

Harold Mansfield

11-17-2009, 12:05 PM

As far as India and China are concerned, they may have an educated population and are willing to suck up all of our menial tasks like customer service, tech support and cheap manufacturing, but as more people in those countries begin to make money, and see other people making money..they will soon subcomb to the same challenges that American manufactures have...everyone is going to want a piece of the pie and menial wages will be come less attractive.

However, as long as they both have corrupt and oppressive governments and remain ridiculously overcrowded, a good portion of the population will always be poor and be forced to take what ever they can get and all of the good talent and education will rise to the top and move away to other countries like America just as the best German and Russian scientists did in the late 40's and 50's.

Every conversation I have had with people from India and Pakistan always starts with how beautiful the country is and how rich it is with culture, and ends with "It's so crowded and poor that I couldn't wait to get the hell out of there".

I don't see them as an economic threat at all, they just happen to be on an upswing right now and for the first time people are actually allowed to make money.

I just don't see a country where the people are not free being a long standing economic power. It hasn't worked yet. The good talent leaves, and the people left behind either get corrupt, beat into submission, or revolt. Especially today in this age of information where people can actually see what else is out there and call their governments on their BS. You can say that Russia was a huge economic power for decades, but it's a lot easier to keep the people down, poor (and make them think they aren't) and do the will of the government in a closed society that keeps telling you the world is evil and we are the only ones that really care about you...it's like an abusive relationship....those days are over. People know when they are being screwed now and it only takes a few factory workers in China living in a 100 ft apt with a family of 6 to see a factory worker in America living in a 4000 sq ft house with a family of 4 before people start to get a little pissed and either want to leave or loose all motivation.

All the money in India and China are concentrated in the major cities..90% of the people are still poor. Dirt poor. That is not an economic power...that's a few good years for a lucky few.

Spider

11-17-2009, 12:51 PM

Wow! This conversation really got away from me! And what wonderfully inquisitive and productive minds we have in this forum!

It's only natural, but I do think this conversation is still stuck in the manufacturing mindset. We are thinking of the future, what the world will be like and what challenges we will have to face; all in the context of a manufacturing background. The challenges, I think, will be entirely different.

For example, India, China and other under-developed countries are moving from agrarian to industrial at a fair clip. That is the path that America and Western Europe have pretty near reached the end of. Food production in the West is as automated and robotized as any factory producing toys, washing machines and cars.

The challenges of the industrial era are India's and China's to solve. We are moving beyond that. Our task is not to solve our challenges in a "manufacturing" way because that will only take us back down the path we have already travelled, where we will meet India and China coming in the other direction. (And guess who will get run over - the guy going in the wrong direction!)

We have to come up with outlandish solutions to some contextual difficulties. For example - A robot today, in any one of a bazillion factories around the world, does the work of 10 people? 20 people? 100 people? You can easily add more robots and build robots that are self-correcting and that will repair themselves when they break, etc. It does't matter whether we are talking of India, China, or the United States, manufacturing is becoming more and more productive and requiring less and less human input.

Whether people are educated or not, there is a surplus of people for a manufactoring world view. Service industries can take up some of that slack but not entirely. Income - which people need to survive - is tied to the manufacturing mindset. If people are less and less needed to manufacture goods and services, then who will have the money to buy the goods and services produced by these automated factories? And as more and more people are without income, they will not survive.

We talk today of the homeless, because most of us have homes and a small proportion do not. What will the world be when most people do not have homes and a small proportion of the population have homes? Will we refer then to the "homed" people as being unusual? How will we buy food if we do not have an income? We cannot all be self-employed because most of what self employed people do today - just like employed people - will be done by robots.

Somehow, money - if it is still to be used as a means of exchange - will have to be distributed to people for some reason other than the work they do based on measures of a manufacuring nature. Somehow, we will have to find a way to pay people to lie on the beach all day. Five hours sunbathing is worth $150 - collect your pay at Window #6 !!!

Or money will have to be be discarded and some other means of distributing food and clothes and other essentials will need to be found?

You think the Health Insurance debate is about socialism - what does this sound like????

I don't want to bring politics into this, but it seems pretty clear to me that the free enterprise system - well-suited though it is for an industrial era - is going to be woefully inadequate for a post-industrial world.

What did you say about pipes and smoking it, Mike?! :D

greenoak

11-17-2009, 06:25 PM

Harold Mansfield

11-17-2009, 08:36 PM

i think its a shame we have given up manufacturing.... we cant just be bankers and idea people...what is the population supposed too do for work?
i really think the companies could come up with ways to have work done work here...its not going to be like it was....but arent we supposed to have some ingenuity? or patriotism....

It's a nice sentiment Ann, but it's unrealistic to think that for profit companies are going to create a way to keep unskilled and unneeded people employed at their cost.

The face and technology of manufacturing has changed...it always changes and workers need to change with it and be prepared, not fight to go backwards and hold on to old industrialism methods and ideas. Automation and advances in technology have been responsible for eliminating positions since the beginning of the industrial age. Nothing has changed.

No everyone can't be a banker, but there is less and less room for people who have no skills, education, or training in needed areas, and I don't think that anyone should be expected to pay them anything higher than the job is worth out of some patriotic duty or sense of loyalty...nor should they expect it.

we are suckers for the big corporations i think...they ship the jobs overseas, they sell to us, and they shelter their money overseas..and buy off our representatives....
Yep. That pretty much sums it up, but, they weren't all big corporations at first. Somewhere, they all started as "Mom and Pop's" either themselves, or their parent companies and had the same concerns as they grew into what they are now.

my business is pure unprotected capitalism...i dont get gov welfare like the farmers or the big guys who write the laws that cover their businesses......so i dont feel like a socialist....
but i would like universal health care...
jmho

I'm not touching the Health Care thing:D

greenoak

11-17-2009, 09:15 PM

i just think we could be more creative..and make things in the new world and in a new way...not the old way.....
....... .i dont think the workers want to be unskilled and unwanted....ann

vangogh

11-17-2009, 10:44 PM

make things in the new world and in a new way...not the old way

Ann I think that is what's happening. The old way is the manufacturing jobs and the new way is whatever is coming. With something of this scale I don't think it's something we can create as a whole. We all make smaller changes and the system itself evolves based on those changes.

greenoak

11-17-2009, 11:13 PM

we will still buy THINGS... and they will still need to be made somewhere... so maybe we could figure out how to make some of them here....or is that just a wild idea!!!....
.i just hope there is a place for our people to make a living ... ...
our state, indiana, outsourced the office work in the unemployment office....great use of taxpayers money!! i think they changed it....ann

vangogh

11-17-2009, 11:32 PM

I think there will be a place for people to make a living. It will just be different than the way their grandparents made a living. Why do things need to be made here?

Take the auto industry. The parts are manufactured and assembled. The cars are tested. The cars are shipped around the world. They're sold locally through dealerships. They're taken to mechanics to maintain them. That doesn't even include the corporation that had to design and engineer the car and market the car and it doesn't include all the associated jobs such as accounting and human resources. etc.

That's a lot of jobs for one company. They don't all need to be done here. By doing different jobs in different places ideally you end up with a better car that costs less meaning more people can own a car that lasts longer. So what if the manufacturing is done in Mexico or South Korea. There are still plenty of other jobs in the company that can be done here.

Harold Mansfield

11-18-2009, 12:29 AM

Also, as has happened at various points in the economic history of this country, we have a large number of workers caught between the status quo and new advances technology and efficiency...and many of them are at the end of their work life and need to be retrained or are in need of higher education to compete in today's work force.

It happened to me. I rode the Bartending train for 15 years both in Miami and Las Vegas. For so long there were more bars, restaurants and nightclubs opening than you could staff with exceptional and talented people. The best people went to the best places and made the most money. Not exactly a trade, but definitely a skill.

Well that well dried up and there's not 50 bars and nightclubs opening every year or a constant flow of new casinos opening every 6 months. I also got older and became less interested in competing for the positions that are out there just as the competition became intense and competitors multiplied exponentially. There were fewer places to work and less money to be made.

I had to adjust and move on and learn something new. Easier said than done for most, but I realized years ago that I was not going to be able to do that kind of job forever, nor that the money would always be that good. My friends in the mortgage and real estate industry faced the same thing. Unfortunately for them, they never thought it would end no matter how ridiculously inflated housing was.

Nothing lasts forever, at some point in your life, you are going to have to make a change.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the average U.S. worker changes careers 3-5 times during their lifetime.

Not just jobs..careers !

vangogh

11-18-2009, 01:30 AM

I had to adjust and move on and learn something new.

And that's what a lot of other people will need to do as well. It will be harder for some than others, but that's true no matter what the economy is like.

I can look at myself. Nothing in my life prior to starting a business trained me for starting a business. Same thing with web design and development. I knew nothing about either until I taught them to myself.

And I'm pretty sure I well past those 3-5 careers.

Spider

11-18-2009, 09:58 AM

we will still buy THINGS... and they will still need to be made somewhere... so maybe we could figure out how to make some of them here....or is that just a wild idea!!!....
.i just hope there is a place for our people to make a living ... Ann, you sum up the problem, as I see it, and demonstrate exactly what I'm getting at. It won't help "our people make a living" when everything is being made by robot, because it makes no difference whether the robot making the cars is in Ohio or Osaka or Oslo. Robots need few people whether they are Chinese people or American people. It's the problem the Luddites were afraid of at the start of the industrial revolution, which led to labor rioting and destroying the new machines. Now, 300 years later, the problem is becoming real.

Let me put it simply - A group of 1,000 workers make stuff and provide services enough for 1,000 customers. The community is self-sufficient.

One robot is installed in one factory and 100 people are laid off. Now 900 people are producing all the things 1,000 people need and want and we have 10% unemployment. But the owners of that robot make more money.

Over the course of the past 300 years this has always been solved by making better things and providing more services, and there has been a steady growth and improved standard of living.

But what if all the factories in this community of 1,000 people laid off all their workers and installed robots, all at once. No service industry could expand to provide work for these laid off workers. The laid off workers would not have the money to buy the services nor the goods the robots are making. The robots would have to stop producing because no-one is buying what they make. The community would collapse.

The only way this community could survive is for them to find some way to get money to the laid off workers (for doing nothing) so they could buy the goods the robots are making and continue to hire the service people.

In this "manufacturing age" we live in, the money that makes the economy work is given to the people in exchange for their time at the factory. When their time at the factory is not neeed, how can we give them the money to keep the economy running? 5% unemployment is fine, 10% unemployment barely tolerable, 50% unemployment unimaginable, 80% unemployment catastrophic! Unless some other way is found of getting money into the hands of consumers so they can consume.

A new paradigm is needed. A new thought pattern. A totally new "worldview."

Dan Furman

11-18-2009, 11:26 AM

One thing Ann mentioned that I want to comment on:

i just hope there is a place for our people to make a living

To me, this is the issue - what exactly is "a living"? Is it 2,500 sq ft, three kids in college, cell phones for all and the best cable TV package? Or is it a roof and food and that's about it?

There was a time... from prettymuch the beginning of recorded history until WW2, where the regular workers were poor. In fact, the vast majority of the population was poor. There was no giant middle class. An ordinary worker having a huge house and color TV? Ridiculous.

After WW2, three things happened: The Marshall Plan, The GI Bill, and the fact that almost all of Europe and large parts of Japan were leveled. The only place untouched with all factories standing? The USA. So we spent a few decades basically making everything for everyone. And the GI Bill made it easy to buy a home. All of a sudden, ordinary people (without special skills or talents) could make a really good living. House, two cars, a few kids, nice TV, out to eat every weekend, etc etc.

So going back to what Ann said, THAT'S what we now see as "a living". And it's pretty clear that it's not sustainable - that the whole "middle class" thing was an anomaly.

In the US, we're going to have to go backwards in terms of the vast majority living the good life - there is no other way to go. The truly talented will always thrive, in any economy. The "regular joe"? He's gonna have to downsize.

Spider

11-18-2009, 12:06 PM

...In the US, we're going to have to go backwards in terms of the vast majority living the good life - there is no other way to go. The truly talented will always thrive, in any economy. The "regular joe"? He's gonna have to downsize.I agree with your backdrop, Dan. I would like to find a different follow-up scene for this future we face - and I do think something prettier than your expectations is possible.

You're a smart fellow - would you like to brainstorm a few ways you can make your expectations wrong?

Dan Furman

11-18-2009, 03:37 PM

I agree with your backdrop, Dan. I would like to find a different follow-up scene for this future we face - and I do think something prettier than your expectations is possible.

You're a smart fellow - would you like to brainstorm a few ways you can make your expectations wrong?

I'm always game for anything, but truthfully, I see it as inevitable, and I don't think there is any solution. There are simply too many people for everyone to live the kind of lives we've been accustomed to. In terms of economics, I strongly feel the natural way of things is the general unskilled to be rather ordinary/poor in terms of economic status. You can't continually have a country of kings, and we were pretty close to having that for awhile, due to the reasons I already discussed. But we've had a taste, and we NEVER want to go away from that.

Really, mine is a very bleak view. I understand - nobody wants to think this (but I suspect most of us have a pretty uneasy feeling.)

I think part of the reason I see this as clearly as I do is I have no children - I literally have no stake in the future, so "hopeful" doesn't really enter into it when I think about this (my brother, who has two young children, never wants to discuss this kind of stuff, because it pains him - he knows things are going to be different for his kids, but he doesn't like to admit it. He'd rather say the standard "we'll get out of it - we always have. America will bounce back, etc etc")

billbenson

11-18-2009, 03:37 PM

And I'll add my name to the list of people who faced hardship and needed a complete career change. I was a sales manager, managing sales in the Caribbean, Central, and South America for a Telecommunication product. I made a good living. In 98 my career ended after 22 years. I ran out of savings, spent all my 401k money, couldn't find a job that paid more than 40k which was a fraction of what I was used to making, and the 40k jobs were hard to find. I filed bankruptcy.

I'm starting to make a decent living again in a completely different career after 11 years of hardship. I'm not out of debt yet, but should be within 6 months. My credit sucks and I owe the IRS 3 years in taxes, although because I haven't made much until recently its not an outrageous sum.

So, I apologize if this seems harsh, but I have very little sympathy for workers that have had careers disappear. Everybody needs to have a plan B. I didn't. I thought my career would last forever. I was wrong. It took me two years to accept that. Then I started rebuilding from the bottom, at times making 25k a year. Hard to live on that. If you refuse to find a different career - sorry, no sympathy.

Spider

11-18-2009, 05:42 PM

I don't have children, either, and precious little close family, and my future only stretches out 20 more years or so. I will not see the end of the manufacturing era. Thus, this whole debate is purely academic for me.

Yet, I do like to think on these things. I do like to contemplate what will happen. If only for the sake of mental exercise and keeping the brain active.

Plus, it gives me the opportunity to create optimism in my life and live more happily in the years left to me. It's very strange facing one's mortality and I do not - will not - face the end with sadness and regret. It's not so much that I have faith in America, although that is part of it, but I simply have faith in humankind. I refuse to accept the dark future often portrayed in futuristic sci-fi movies (whether it's dark alleys and motorcycle gang equivalents or Star Wars lookalikes) so I often think what will it be like instead, if not that.

I think I've given my expectation for the solution to pending problems - some other means of distributing money, some totally different measure of wealth, and generally speaking, a bright, productive and happy future for all.

I plan to arrive late for my own funeral, skidding to a halt in front of the graveyard in an open top Aston Martin, windswept hair (what's left of it!), a glass of champaigne in one hand and a pretty girl holding the other, screaming, "YeeHa! What a ride!"

Patrysha

11-18-2009, 06:59 PM

I do have children :-)

And I hope I can raise them well enough with enough of a love of learning (and of course the accompanying skill of knowing how to research and learn quickly and effectively) and with the creative thinking skills to be innovative enough to be able to ride out the storms that may lay ahead.

I am lucky with the oldest son...he reads nearly as fast as I do and picks up things quickly - unfortunately he is really missing internal motivation which is turning my hairy gray by the minute. The middle son doesn't read nearly as fast, but he does grasp concepts quickly...though he tends to overthink things and has a fear of making mistakes that holds him back at times.

My youngest...well at this point we're thinking he'd be a really good comedian...so hopefully people of the future will still be willing to pay for a laugh in whatever currency or manner of trade does develop.

That or blow the doors off of my business to the point where future generations won't have to worry...

Dan Furman

11-18-2009, 07:21 PM

It's not so much that I have faith in America, although that is part of it, but I simply have faith in humankind. I refuse to accept the dark future often portrayed in futuristic sci-fi movies (whether it's dark alleys and motorcycle gang equivalents or Star Wars lookalikes) so I often think what will it be like instead, if not that.

I think I've given my expectation for the solution to pending problems - some other means of distributing money, some totally different measure of wealth, and generally speaking, a bright, productive and happy future for all.

Oh, I think in the long term, we (as a species) will be fine. My "doom and gloom" is prettymuch restricted to us first world nations and our big homes, SUV's, etc.

I do think a pretty bad Pandemic is coming, though. Five, ten, twenty years... whenever. It almost seems "natural" to me that we be thinned out.

Spider

11-18-2009, 08:28 PM

...I do think a pretty bad Pandemic is coming, though. Five, ten, twenty years... whenever. It almost seems "natural" to me that we be thinned out.Very possible. It might "thin us out" enough to solve the global warming/greenhouse gases problem, too, and save the planet from destruction.

vangogh

11-19-2009, 02:26 AM

I'm ever the optimist and believe things will work out fine. We just can't see how at the moment, because we're too close to the changes taking place. There are changes happening we can see though.

We're becoming a more global economy all the time, which should end up make the world more productive. That might mean some of the wealth in the US moves elsewhere, but overall I think the planet wins. On another topic and perhaps a new can of worms being opened I think a global economy is good politically. I think it becomes harder to go to war with a country when your economies are interwoven. A debate for another time perhaps.

The internet is something that many of us here might take for granted, but it is a game changer and while it's been with us for awhile, it's still incredibly young and I don't think any of us truly knows where it will be in 20 years. Being able to sell internationally and build virtual companies where employees are spread out across the globe opens up a lot of possibilities that didn't exist when we entered the manufacturing age.

It's true automation puts people out of work, but it should also make things cheaper and easier to produce. To add to Frederick's example a few posts back. We start with 1000 people working who each need $1 each to buy their goods. Now we have 900 people working, and 1000 people needing 90 cents to buy their goods, because the good are more plentiful and their cost of production is less.

New industries open up new jobs. So do new technologies. Many expect some of those new industries to revolve around things like energy or bioengineering. Someone who used to work manufacturing cars in Detroit may find themselves manufacturing Solar panels or wind turbines in New Mexico. What's leaving is the manufacturing jobs for what we are currently producing less of than we used to. That doesn't mean we won't be manufacturing other things in the not too distant future.

@Patrysha - how old is your son? The one lacking motivation? If he's under 30 I wouldn't worry too much. He may only be unmotivated, because he's yet to find what it is that will motivate him. I wasn't particularly motived myself when I was younger. Then I found things I enjoyed doing and it all changed.

Patrysha

11-19-2009, 03:32 AM

Completely off the original topic...

Van Gogh...yeah he's under 30 by a long shot. He's only 12! Officially a teenager in less than two months...

And yes, maybe I do worry too much about his motivation and work ethic, but I'm a mom and that's my job :)

I get why he doesn't apply himself...because schoolwork is boring and stupid and repetitive and he'd much rather wait till my back is turned and pull up WOW instead.

School has taught him how to get by with minimum effort, helped by my lack of backbone as a parent over the past two years...

greenoak

11-19-2009, 09:31 AM

i agree van gogh....and i feel hopeful too....or try too...i do think the idea that manfacturing is over for america is a dangerous direction or assumption and i sure hope it doesnt completely catch on....im hoping for innovation and our ingenuity that will work for our population ... ...
im sure not for overpaying unskilled workers......that wasnt my point....my point was that we would be crazy to give up making stuff in america....im with mike on this for sure...
.this is what im talking about: the electric motorcycle maker in oregon....
i saw him on tv last night....somehow he figured how to make something here.... his factory can assemble them in 2 hrs...he wants to be cheaper and better than china....and green.........
you cant say education is the cure when thousands, including college graduates, line up for one job..... ... so many are under employed too....
i hate to see gov money spent for training when there arent jobs to train for.....

i will have a job....if i could clone myself i could have 2..IMHO.very humble opinion!!!lol......... BUT there are tons of skilled guys around my town with barely any work and wanting to work and smart enough to learn...the good jobs are mostly gone around here....these men are workers , they need employers,,,they probably arent going to be starting their own business... maybe they should but thats not for everybody....
ann

Patrysha

11-19-2009, 09:42 AM

you cant say education is the cure when thousands, including college graduates, line up for one job..... ... so many are under employed too....
i hate to see gov money spent for training when there arent jobs to train for.....

Education is part of the cure, but not education in the same-old way. The system has to be revamped to go beyond the basics of stuffing knowledge and useless facts into kids heads and into the development of critical thinking skills, harnessing creativity and things that actually set them up for a lifetime of learning.

Easier said than done of course because the education system has so many challenges. As the wife of a teacher I see so many issues that make it hard to see a solution coming out of the political mess that it is.

greenoak

11-19-2009, 09:54 AM

Very possible. It might "thin us out" enough to solve the global warming/greenhouse gases problem, too, and save the planet from destruction.

now you all are really scaring me!!!!

handprop

11-19-2009, 10:01 AM

It's a bit complicated for anybody to understand something that hasn't happened yet. One thing that needs to happen is America needs to re-invent itself and jockey for position based on a sound strategy poised for future growth. I believe manufacturing will not only be here for the long term but will actually grow. Proof of this is available from leading economists who have charted a surge in certain areas of the manufacturing process where America has excelled far above foreign efforts. Much of this surge is because of democracy, innovation, and entrepreneurship. In the future the world will be a much different place but I think it's a good thing and I think our culture will be better off. Right now it's wreck and it's getting worse but I talk to many companies each week and as we speak they are working hard to re-invent themselves and their companies. Of course none of this is on the news an is not seem by the average person but it is happening each day. One thing I never underestimate is the power of American thinking, entrepreneurship is a powerful force.

At one point people kept talking about green jobs, wind mills, solar, etc. That seems to be fading and I'm pretty sure it we never happen. America seems to be searching and looking for the next phase of an economic cycle and I do think we will come out way ahead of the rest of the world. I guess time will tell.

Mike

handprop

11-19-2009, 10:04 AM

Don't worry Ann.....nothing is a sure bet. I know this because were both entrepreneurs and anything is possible in America, all that's asked is you fight for her. Good times are coming, mark my words.

Mike

dynocat

11-19-2009, 10:35 AM

.this is what im talking about: the electric motorcycle maker in oregon....
i saw him on tv last night....somehow he figured how to make something here.... his factory can assemble them in 2 hrs...he wants to be cheaper and better than china....and green.........

Excellent example, ann. Here's a link (http://theportlander.com/oregon-built-brammo-enertia-all-electric-motorcycle-coming-to-portland-july-5th/) to a news blurb on it on the Enertia Motorcycle.

It will be innovators like him that keep/create manufacturing jobs in this country. Any custom or niche manufacturer can make a good living in the USA. Maybe we can't make cars without robots, but with creative designers, skilled builders and knowledgeable business owners, we can make many needed and desired products from natural materials--wood, stone, etc. Key word is "desired." Doesn't matter if I or you agree with customers who want "natural," "green." or "eco-friendly" products or not. If there is demand we can supply.

greenoak

11-19-2009, 11:27 AM

thanks for the link ...thats what im talking about....
.we try to do it too... for our company to compete with china we have to be innovative.... i go for nothing small but rather large things and sometimes with with partly old parts........figuring about anything small in our style world could be made in china for pennies...so we go for neat and big and targeted to our field ...see here Green Oak Antiques | Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rochester-IN/Green-Oak-Antiques/128260302593?ref=share) these are big, well made and we sell a lot of them.... they could be made in china but not with the quality of the antique solid wood parts... and the shipping would be major....the one in the pic is over 6 ft long....the front is an old door, the posts are old house corbels and trim....all the things we deal in and have access to....
we also make a line of cupboards and benches.... all new...the carpenters buy wood in bulk...
ann

vangogh

11-19-2009, 12:04 PM

you cant say education is the cure when thousands, including college graduates, line up for one job

Ann I can understand that. It's certainly not just about more education. But you're looking at those college students in the context of the situation today. For one it's obviously a down economy at the moment. Those same college kids might have had their choice of jobs even a couple of years ago.

I think there will still be manufacturing jobs here. Not as many as there were 50 years ago and they'll likely be manufacturing different things. I also think something else will fill the gap and be employer to most of those who are losing manufacturing jobs today. Those people will probably need to learn new skills or learn how to apply their current skills in different ways, but I do think there will be jobs for them. To me eduction doesn't necessarily mean everyone has to go out and earn Ph.Ds to survive. The education is going to be learning new skills for the available jobs.

For example earlier I mentioned how energy might become the next big industry here. The industry will need people to build wind turbines. That will require a new skill set, though that skill set won't be too hard to acquire for someone who's worked manufacturing. Their skills we need to be tweaked, but it won't be 100% new. The job will probably also pay more for the early adapters who make the change because the talent pool will have less to draw from. There will be less supply of potential employees as the industry gets started.

Someone currently manufacturing cars could right now learn the skills they need to work in the wind turbine industry, get themselves a higher wage, and be ahead of everyone else when it comes time for promotion.

The job they currently have might be moving overseas, but there's an opportunity for a better job if they're willing to learn new skills and make a few changes in where they live.

@Patrysha - You're being a mom which is totally understandable. I wouldn't expect you to react any other way. But I wouldn't worry too much about the motivation of a 12 year old. I think at that age he's supposed to be unmotivated.

billbenson

11-20-2009, 02:57 PM

There will always be a place for manufacturing. Particularly places that do custom items or new hi tech items. But that's not going to help the people laid off from huge assembly lines in Michigan. There are just to many of them with expectations of to much money. But it will be here.

War or unstable economies in places where assembly is taking place could also dramatically effect manufacturing. As I said before, Levis largest plant was (and I believe still is) in El Salvador. El Salvador has a newly elected socialist president. Much of Central America and parts of South America are moving in the direction of Castro. This could affect their ability to export to the US.

So world instability could drive some manufacturing back to the US. There are still plenty of poor stable countries that can manufacture though. A world war could also change things dramatically and is possible?

As to the education thing. Education teaches you to learn. Even if you major in some liberal arts subject which has very little direct application to jobs at a bachelor degree level, you learn how to learn! Particularly at a college age where kids don't know what direction to go. Those kids will adapt better for the most part than kids with no education.

The thing that concerns me the most is our country moving in a socialistic direction. The more we move away from capitalism, the less motivation people will have to innovate and work. I work 12 hours days because I can see the success light at the end of the tunnel. If I can't see that light, I'll move to a country where I can see that light.

I know someone who left England to live in another country because of taxes and work restrictions in England. You could see that here given the right conditions. I don't see that happening in my life, but down the road...

greenoak

11-21-2009, 09:49 AM

i think dow chemical is making solar panels..... and california is deep into lots of new industries....
they came up with silicone valley and so much else....so maybe they will be the incubator for the future like they have been in the past...

of course i get that cars put buggys out of business....thats the natural progression.... that doesnt concern me as much as the idea that we dont need to make anything...or worse that the global companies have no obligation to this country..... and have made the laws so they can get their money from our population and not have to be responsible in any way and just be sellers to this country...and at the same time they reap gov welfare ....in subsidies grants sweetheart tax deals with states and towns.. etc etc....they are very good at milking the taxpayers ... .
. i pay a lot of taxes.... no big lobby for me!!!

Harold Mansfield

11-21-2009, 01:53 PM

At every advance in industry that wipes out jobs, a new opportunity is created.

Cars put buggy's out of business, but the car industry ushered in an age that brought far more employment, and prosperity in America than buggy's ever could.

The internet is killing newspapers, but the internet has opened more possibilities to millions of people in terms of education, and self employment than newspapers ever could.

When one door is closing, there is always a window that offers another opportunity.

In the case of small towns and communities with little work because one industry of another shut down..that was always the danger when a community is dependent on one company, or one industry for it's lifeline...sort of putting all of your eggs in one basket.
I can look back at all of the towns around Detroit that were created solely because of the auto industry that now have nothing...Romulus, Inskster, River Rouge, Wyandot, Hamtramck, Wayne, Flat Rock, Gross Ille, Southgate, Monroe, Toledo OH...not to mention all of the surrounding suburbs where auto workers lived, and the goods and services that they supported.

An entire section of the country from Pennsylvania to Missouri was dependent on one industry for it's lifeline, and we all know what happened there.

What do you tell a guy that has worked at a Ford plant for 20 years and now has no job ? I don't know. I never expected to have a job that I worked 20 years so I can't imagine that kind of comfort zone.

But just as I always saw the writing on the wall when I worked at a Nightclub that wasn't going to make it (and that usually happens in a matter of weeks or months), it seems that workers in that era would have seen the writing on the wall that took years.

You have no choice but to adjust and reinvent yourself, even if it means moving, or you won't make it.
I'll bet many of the laid off auto workers would have been easier to place if they had a back up plan, higher education, or skills in anther area in life.

I was there, lord knows most of them had the money, the opportunity, and the time.

KristineS

11-23-2009, 12:55 PM

My father retired from GM several years ago. He started right out of high school sweeping floors and worked his way up, eventually retiring from a purchasing management position. He worked for the same company and virtually in the same place for over 30 years.

That simply doesn't happen any more. I've worked for more companies in the years I've been working, and I'm 40, than my parents and my grandparents collectively worked for in their entire lives. Starting with a company and working your way up through that same company is pretty rare now days.

I have to agree with eborg, you have to be alert and nimble to survive today. If you can't adapt and learn and adjust, you're going to have problems.

Spider

11-23-2009, 03:00 PM

..I have to agree with eborg, you have to be alert and nimble to survive today. If you can't adapt and learn and adjust, you're going to have problems.That is said of the individual, yet I believe that applies to nations as well. America has to be alert and nimble to survive. If America can't adapt and learn and adjust, the country is going to have problems.

And just like people will not survive by trying to hang on to an obsolete manufacturing job, so neither will a country. It's rather difficult to be alert and nimble, adaptive and adjustable while you are chained to a drill press or a production line.

Factories are awfully un-nimble, the last time I looked.