PDA

View Full Version : Interesting view on economy long term



billbenson
03-22-2012, 05:02 PM
This is looking at the economy 10 years down the road:

Too Many Jobs?! A Look Ahead at the Next Labor Market Crisis | Breakout - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/too-many-jobs-look-ahead-next-labor-market-144556623.html)

MyITGuy
03-22-2012, 06:14 PM
Very possible. Especially as the author discussed/touched on. The savings that corporations are currently enjoying by shipping jobs overseas is going to (If not already) change via companies making changes to account for consumer dissatisfaction/language barriers, Wage increases that companies overseas are/will have to make to ensure employee safety/satisfaction, as well as potential legislation that will either tax US companies for continuing to ship workers overseas or by implementing/raising taxes/fees on products shipped in from overseas.

huggytree
03-22-2012, 06:34 PM
how are the boomers going to retire and create these new jobs???

none of them have anything saved for retirement

i think your going to see parents living with their children so they can retire......lots of reverse mortgages(which will take away the kids inheritance)

every generation gives a nice inheritance to their kids and the house is most of it....the baby boomers will have no choice but to do reverse mortages...that will take $50,000-$100,000 out of every childs pocket that every generation before got...the boomers will take everything they made with them to the grave (and borrow the gov't into bankruptcy)

i see nothing but suffering for a lot of X'rs in the future from the boomers

the boomers will and are going to bleed us dry

jobs will come back eventually, but i doubt there will be too many jobs....maybe steve B will be busy delivering Dog food to all the boomers that need to eat a well rounded meal on a fixed budget.....hard to retire when you have $50,000-$100,000 in savings

vangogh
03-23-2012, 02:26 AM
Interesting perspective.

huggy I think the idea with the baby boomers is they'll retire and their jobs will need to be filled. There are more of them than generations behind which should help shift the job market back in favor of jobs seekers.


i see nothing but suffering for a lot of X'rs in the future from the boomers

Possible. I'm a gen x'r too. The video suggested it would be the millenials behind us that will profit the most.

Some of the jobs that have left the country aren't coming back. They started leaving long before the current economic situation. The answer for us isn't to try to bring them all back. It's to figure out what's next. In some cases that might mean new industries like alternative energy. More likely I think it means entrepreneurship. I expect you'll see more and more people doing what a lot of us here do. Work for ourselves, especially online.

I think we're going to see more virtual companies in the coming years and more people working at home over the internet. There will also be a greater emphasis on creativity. I don't specifically mean creativity in the sense of works of art, literature, and music, but creativity in business. A lot of the ways we live and do business are fundamentally changing and with that change we're going to see new businesses and industries that we can only imagine. Who would have predicted Facebook 10 years ago? Who would have predicted Google 10 years before that?

We're still in the very early days of the internet. It doesn't feel like it, because it's been with us awhile now, but it's still in its infancy. There's still a lot of untaped potential there.

DeniseTaylor
03-23-2012, 12:28 PM
Economic uncertainty is one of the biggest reasons our customers state for starting their online businesses. It is likely that the days of relying on one or any employer to fulfill your financial needs is risky. There are many examples now of individuals who work for otherwise extremely stable, long-term companies facing job cuts, pay cuts and hour cuts. As the recession grinds on, even the strongest employers begin to falter. Self reliance is a big draw for starting your own thing. Low cost and low risk make starting up online even more attractive. Online or off, having another way to earn income that one can control is a good idea. Besides helping to pad the checking account, it can be a big morale boost in an otherwise dismal time.

billbenson
03-23-2012, 01:35 PM
Economic uncertainty is one of the biggest reasons our customers state for starting their online businesses. It is likely that the days of relying on one or any employer to fulfill your financial needs is risky. There are many examples now of individuals who work for otherwise extremely stable, long-term companies facing job cuts, pay cuts and hour cuts. As the recession grinds on, even the strongest employers begin to falter. Self reliance is a big draw for starting your own thing. Low cost and low risk make starting up online even more attractive. Online or off, having another way to earn income that one can control is a good idea. Besides helping to pad the checking account, it can be a big morale boost in an otherwise dismal time.

I agree. kids are coming out of school today with the mind set that they are going to have to make it on their own and can't rely on working for one company until they retire.

Since the beginning of time things have always changed and people have adapted. I just think that right now we are in a time of change. Many if not most workers aren't adapting to the changes. But the kids joining the workforce today.

Huggy, the older generation isn't adapting well to new technologies an changes in the way business is done. Certainly they will present a load on the system, but they will eventually die and the situation you describe will go away. Everything goes in cycles.

huggytree
03-24-2012, 09:11 AM
Huggy, the older generation isn't adapting well to new technologies an changes in the way business is done. Certainly they will present a load on the system, but they will eventually die and the situation you describe will go away. Everything goes in cycles.

they will die and go away, but not for my generation...there will be hardship due to their 'me first' attitudes and their lack of giving a damn about their kids/grand kids....the situation will go away...in 50+ years....or we will print money and it will cost a 1 billion dollar bill to buy a gallon of milk..in that case it may never be the same

billbenson
03-24-2012, 11:49 AM
they will die and go away, but not for my generation...there will be hardship due to their 'me first' attitudes and their lack of giving a damn about their kids/grand kids....the situation will go away...in 50+ years....or we will print money and it will cost a 1 billion dollar bill to buy a gallon of milk..in that case it may never be the same

But that is your personal gripe. There is always a load on society of one type or another. The economy will be back long before that.

huggytree
03-24-2012, 04:00 PM
i dont think people realize the impact the baby boomers will have on the economy....its going to be massive and painful...........the Baby Boomer issue may be worse than WW II was.......maybe it already is w/ $16,000,000,000,000 in debt

when were all taking care of are parents because they have no savings thats alot of $ out of the economy.....when no one gets an inheritance because their parents all did reverse mortgages thats $50,000-$100,000 out of each persons pocket they people typically get at age 50 with their parents die...that $50-100k pays for alot of nice vacations or a new house, car, etc.....my parents upgraded to a larger house when they got $100,000 from my grandparents house...

the american dream may not be realized by gen X

doom and gloom....im just trying to counter the belief that everythings going to be great job wise when the baby boomers retire....im saying they #1 wont/cant retire and the ones who have no choice due to illness/health will be a drag on their kids........i see more neg. than pos. to their retirement

im not a baby boomer fan at all...ive discussed it many times with my wife how i look forward to being 70 and living in a world w/o them....im curious how our country will be w/o them....its going to be different for sure.....im hoping for better on this one.:o

huggytree
03-24-2012, 04:08 PM
The economy will be back long before that.

agreed....looks like were going to have 10 lost years like Japan though

im doing well through it, but i dream of the day its easier to find work

i dont think new home construction will ever be back to where it was...i think this has permanently effected people......it has me...i no longer have any interest in getting a new/bigger house....im staying put and investing in my current house..........i also know i can lose 50% of my investments in 6 months at any time....when i retire i wont be leaving it in stocks(like i had originally planned on doing)....this means i need more $$ before i can retire since my post retirement $ wont be making a very high %

i think a whole generation will be effected by this economy...just like my parents were from the great depression......they have 35 year old furniture(orange burlap is the material i think) which was covered from day 1 (still in mint condition), throw nothing out until its broke (have a severely out dated computer,tv and electronics) and bargain hunt to the point of being annoying......i still remember my mom driving around to save 1 cent per gallon for gasoline....major events effect people for the rest of their lives.....

billbenson
03-24-2012, 06:55 PM
The problem is huggy, is you are thinking only around the affects of your industry and construction. If you, or anyone else are going to say, "I want to do what I have always done and be paid well for it" you are doomed. You have to look at new trends and adapt. I lost my Telecom career in 1999. It took me two years to realize I no longer had a career and I'm still building a new career. But I accepted change, studied and adapted. I have zero sympathy for a GM worker who is laid off because of market conditions or automation and refuses to retrain.

You are lucky in your trade. Plumbers have been needed for 200 years or more and will likely be needed through your lifetime and paid well.

huggytree
03-25-2012, 02:01 PM
You are lucky in your trade. Plumbers have been needed for 200 years or more and will likely be needed through your lifetime and paid well.

yes i am....and its not luck that i chose plumbing.....

any job ive ever had i always went after the money.......as long as i stay a 1 man shop i almost cant lose

vangogh
03-27-2012, 12:51 AM
You have to look at new trends and adapt.

Yep. I think that's the main issue. I see too many people trying to get what was back, when it probably isn't coming back. But there are many new opportunities for people. We're still going to need many of the same industries we've had for years, but some are going elsewhere, because it makes financial sense. We are also much more of a global economy. I remember when Detroit was telling us all to buy American cars. The thing is those American cars are partly built in other countries and foreign cars are partly built here. In either case there are businesses here selling both and repairing both.

I recently read an article in Fast Company on Generation Flux (http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/162/generation-flux-future-of-business). It's a generation of people of any age really. People that are prepared to change jobs and careers several times over their lifetimes.

Here's another from Wired about how the U.S. needs to make more jobs creative (http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2012/03/opinion-martin-creative-jobs/). If the factory is in China then it's up to us to come up with the idea to put the factory to use. There's a chart in the article showing how creative oriented jobs are up from 10% of the economy to 30%. Services based jobs are also growing and make up 45% of the economy. It's the physical jobs that are shrinking.

This also isn't anything brand new with the downturn a few years ago. This has been going on for years. If you look at the chart in the Wired article, this shift has been happening for a century.